End-to-End Identifiable and Consistent Recurrent Switching Dynamical Systems

Causal representation learning for time series has developed strong identifiability results in discrete-time latent causal models, but identifiability in continuous-time latent stochastic differential equation (SDE) models remains largely open. We address this gap using environment-induced shifts in diffusion covariance. We study additive-noise latent SDEs observed through an unknown nonlinear diffeomorphism, with shared drift but environment-specific diffusion covariance. We show that two diagonal diffusion regimes with pairwise distinct coordinate-wise variance ratios identify the latent coordinates up to permutation and scaling, without any sparsity assumption on the drift. We first prove this result for linear Ornstein--Uhlenbeck systems and then extend it to general additive-noise latent SDEs. Under mild smoothness, the instantaneous drift-Jacobian causal graph is identifiable up to the same permutation. We propose a two-stage estimator for latent disentanglement and optional graph recovery; experiments on synthetic systems confirm the predicted identifiability boundary, and an application to Hardanger Bridge monitoring data illustrates the approach on real sensor trajectories.

In many domains, practitioners seek models that produce accurate forecasts while faithfully capturing latent system dynamics. Existing approaches typically sacrifice one of these goals: deep state space models often assume Gaussian latent transitions, limiting fit and forecasting, while diffusion models are highly expressive but lack principled inference for the underlying dynamics. To combine the strengths of both, we introduce the Diffusion-Driven State Space Model (DDSSM), which replaces the conventional Gaussian transition distribution with a diffusion model. Our DDSSM resolves the open problem of how to jointly train an autoencoder and a diffusion model on sequential data, thereby extending the literature on latent diffusion models for time series. Moreover, we find that the DDSSM empirically outperforms a state-of-the-art deep SSM at fitting and forecasting a simulated time series with multimodal transitions.

The identification and modeling of time-varying systems is a fundamental challenge in signal processing and system identification. To address this challenge, we propose a class of time-varying state-space model (SSM) based neural networks in which the neurons' states are governed by time-varying dynamics. The proposed model provides the learnable time-varying dynamics through a dictionary of basis functions, where each basis function evolves differently over time. We evaluate the proposed approach on both synthetic data from switching systems and a speech denoising task where real audio is corrupted with switching dynamics noise. The results show that the proposed time-varying model consistently outperforms its time-invariant counterparts while maintaining comparable computational complexity. Our investigations also reveal which aspects of the time-varying dynamics of the data most need to be captured by the proposed time-invariant models, how the additional freedom provided by time-varying basis functions should be allocated across model components, and to what extent larger models can compensate for time-invariant limitations.