Time-Varying Deep State Space Models for Sequences with Switching Dynamics

Structured state space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a promising foundation for sequence modeling, with Mamba-based architectures demonstrating strong performance through input-dependent state transitions, albeit at considerable complexity. However, their application to time-series classification (TSC) has been largely limited to Mamba-style architectures, leaving the broader SSM design space underexplored. We present the first systematic study spanning diagonal SSMs (S4D) and input-dependent SSMs (Mamba family) on large-scale TSC benchmarks, asking whether such complexity is necessary for top performance. Our results reveal a surprising finding: S4D consistently outperforms Mamba-based variants in both accuracy and efficiency, challenging the assumption that increased complexity translates to meaningful gains in TSC. Building on this, we introduce MS4, lightweight modifications to S4D via a linear input projection and channel-mixing mechanism, and MS4N, a normalized variant that stabilizes state dynamics with negligible overhead. Evaluated on 59 datasets across MONSTER (up to 60 million samples, 50K timesteps, 82 classes) and the UEA benchmark, against 15 baselines, MS4 and MS4N consistently outperform Mamba-based models while remaining more efficient, and MS4N matches or surpasses competing deep learning models that are roughly 2x and 10x larger in parameters. These results position lightweight structured SSMs as a compelling alternative to scaling complexity for TSC.

Learning identifiable representations in deep generative models remains a fundamental challenge, particularly for sequential data with regime-switching dynamics. Existing approaches establish identifiability under restrictive assumptions, such as stationarity or limited emission models, and typically rely on variational autoencoder (VAE) estimators, which introduce approximation gaps that limit the recovery of the latent structure. In this work, we address both the theoretical and practical limitations of this setting. First, we establish identifiability of a broad class of recurrent nonlinear switching dynamical systems under flexible assumptions, significantly extending prior results. Second, we introduce $Ω$SDS, a flow-based estimator that enables exact likelihood optimization using expectation-maximisation. Through empirical validation on both synthetic and real-world data, our results demonstrate that $Ω$SDS achieves improved disentanglement compared to VAE-based estimators and more accurate forecasting of underlying dynamics.

State Space Models (SSMs) are inherently recurrent along the sequence dimension, yet depth-recurrence - reusing the same block repeatedly across layers, as recently applied in looped transformers - has not been explored in this model family. We show that a looped SSM with $k$ parameters iterated $L$ times consistently closely matches or outperforms a standard SSM with $k \cdot L$ independent parameters across four architectures (LRU, S5, LinOSS, LrcSSM) and six time series classification benchmarks, despite operating within a strictly smaller hypothesis space, as we formally establish. Since the larger model contains the looped model as a special case, this dominance cannot be explained by expressivity and instead points to parameter sharing across depth as a beneficial inductive bias that simplifies optimization. These results demonstrate that depth-recurrence is orthogonal to sequence-recurrence and independently beneficial. We further show that input reshaping is an equally neglected design axis: concatenating timesteps for low-dimensional inputs, or flattening and rechunking the joint feature-time dimension for high-dimensional ones, yields accuracy gains of 1-6% across all models, confirmed over 5 random seeds. Both techniques provide standalone improvements that compound when combined, suggesting that depth and input reshaping are two independent and underexplored design axes for SSMs on time series.