Q-MMR: Off-Policy Evaluation via Recursive Reweighting and Moment Matching
Authors: Xiang Li, Nan Jiang
Organizations: Nanjing University · UIUC
Abstract
We present a novel theoretical framework, Q-MMR, for off-policy evaluation in finite-horizon MDPs. Q-MMR learns a set of scalar weights, one for each data point, such that the reweighted rewards approximate the expected return under the target policy. The weights are learned inductively in a top-down manner via a moment matching objective against a value-function discriminator class. Notably, and perhaps surprisingly, a data-dependent finite-sample guarantee for general function approximation can be established under only the realizability of Qπ, with a dimension-free bound -- that is, the error does not depend on the statistical complexity of the function class. We also establish connections to several existing methods, such as importance sampling and linear FQE. Further theoretical analyses shed new light on the nature of coverage, a concept of fundamental importance to offline RL.
Fitted Q-evaluation (FQE) is a standard regression-based method for off-policy evaluation, but under distribution shift, value-function realizability alone does not ensure convergence, and existing analyses often require Bellman completeness. We trace this instability to a geometric mismatch: standard FQE projects Bellman targets in the norm induced by the offline distribution, which need not preserve Bellman contraction. We therefore study \emph{occupancy-weighted FQE}, which changes only the regression weights. Weighting by a target-policy discounted occupancy ratio aligns the projection norm with the target-policy dynamics and restores contraction of the population projected Bellman operator. We derive finite-sample guarantees with estimated occupancy ratios and function-class misspecification, separating finite-iteration, statistical, approximation, and ratio-estimation errors. Exact occupancy weighting removes the need for Bellman completeness; with estimated weights, approximate completeness and value-function realizability reduce sensitivity to ratio-estimation error, with exact realizability yielding higher-order dependence. Combining occupancy-weighted FQE with fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation gives an end-to-end guarantee governed by the complexities and direct approximation errors of the value-function and occupancy-ratio classes. Under coverage, joint realizability of these two classes suffices for consistent estimation without Bellman or critic-side completeness. Controlled experiments illustrate the projection-norm mechanism and the finite-sample tradeoff between contraction and coverage.
In offline Reinforcement Learning, immediate rewards in logged batch data are often unobserved due to sparse or irregular record-keeping, or censored beyond certain reward values. This issue arises in practical settings, including health care and marketing. We investigate off-policy evaluation (OPE) in finite-horizon Markov decision processes when rewards are missing not at random (MNAR), which breaks ignorability and induces selection bias even after conditioning on states and actions. To address this, we formalize a reward-dependent propensity model and use future states as shadow variables to identify the full-data conditional mean reward. We further introduce a bridge function that recovers the conditional mean reward without explicitly modeling the MNAR mechanism, and estimate it via a min-max procedure to avoid double sampling. Building upon these identification results, we propose an Fitted-Q-Evaluation-style estimator that propagates the recovered rewards while allowing target policies to depend on past missingness indicators. Finally, we establish consistency and finite-sample error bounds for our OPE estimator, and show through experiments the strong performance of our method compared to existing methods on simulated and MIMIC-III Sepsis data.
Multistep credit assignment is critical for sample-efficient reinforcement learning, yet managing off-policy bias in Q-learning remains a fundamental challenge. For 30 years, practitioners have been limited to a binary choice: eliminate the bias at the cost of severely truncated eligibility traces (Watkins' Q(λ)), or ignore the bias to learn faster while injecting detrimental errors into the value estimates (Peng's Q(λ)). Modern off-policy estimators fail to resolve this tension, as importance-sampling ratios collapse under Q-learning's greedy target policy. We introduce Gated Q-learning, a novel algorithmic framework that ends this dilemma by smoothly interpolating between the two historical extremes. Rather than relying on importance sampling, our approach employs a continuous, state-action-dependent gating mechanism to selectively attenuate eligibility traces in an exploration-aware manner. We provide a rigorous theoretical foundation for this mechanism, proving that the expected operator remains a contraction mapping and deriving its exact fixed point. Empirical evaluations verify that intermediate gating safely enables longer credit-assignment horizons, yielding faster initial learning than either extreme. Gated Q-learning offers a simple alternative to importance sampling while enabling customization of the effective multistep horizon and the amount of off-policy bias in Q-learning agents.