An Explainable Unsupervised-to-Supervised Machine Learning Framework for Dietary Pattern Discovery Using UK National Dietary Survey Data

Diabetes mellitus affects over 537 million adults worldwide and remains a major challenge in preventive healthcare. Existing machine-learning studies primarily formulate diabetes prediction as a binary classification problem, while subtype-oriented analysis and glycaemic-cognitive associations remain comparatively underexplored. We present a reproducible three-stage machine learning framework for diabetes detection, subtype-oriented clustering, and metabolic-cognitive association analysis. In Stage 1, five supervised classifiers together with a stacking ensemble are benchmarked on the NCSU Diabetes Dataset using stratified five-fold cross-validation and evaluation metrics including ROC-AUC, balanced accuracy, recall, and F1-score. SVM-RBF and Logistic Regression achieve the highest ROC-AUC ($0.825 \pm 0.026$), while Random Forest achieves the highest accuracy ($0.762 \pm 0.030$). SHAP explainability identifies Glucose, BMI, and Age as the dominant predictive biomarkers. In Stage 2, silhouette-validated K-Means clustering ($k=2$, silhouette $\approx 0.116$) is applied to confirmed diabetic cases using Glucose, Insulin, and Age, recovering clinically plausible subtype-oriented partitions without requiring ground-truth subtype labels. In Stage 3, statistical analysis of the Ohio Longitudinal Cognitive Dataset ($n=373$) reveals a significant positive association between glycaemic control and cognitive function ($ρ_s = 0.208$, $p = 5.29 \times 10^{-5}$), which survives Holm correction. The findings support the utility of statistically grounded and interpretable ML pipelines for reproducible diabetes analytics and subtype-aware exploratory analysis.

Interpreting clustering outcomes remains a fundamental challenge in data analysis, particularly in domains such as healthcare where meaningful patterns must be extracted from high-dimensional data. While numerous explainability techniques exist, they are primarily designed to assess feature importance or provide local instance-level explanations rather than to identify structured patterns present within clusters. This work presents a comparative evaluation of commonly used post-hoc analysis methods for pattern detection in clustering results. To enable controlled evaluation, we introduce a suite of synthetic datasets in which predefined patterns are systematically injected. Three widely used techniques are evaluated: a Random Forest surrogate model with permutation feature importance, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations), and principal component analysis. Results demonstrate that although each method can successfully recover relevant features, none consistently detects all injected pattern types. These findings high- light a critical gap between existing explainability tools and the requirements of pattern-level cluster interpretation, motivating the development of dedicated pattern detection methodologies.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly used for dietary assessment from meal images, where retrieval-augmented grounding was shown to sharpen nutrition estimates. However, we find this premise no longer holds for current MLLMs. A modern MLLM's direct estimate now matches or surpasses the full retrieval pipeline. This raises a question: if retrieval no longer improves the overall estimate, can it still deliver the two things clinicians value, accurate portions and a traceable, item-by-item record? We pursue this while preserving what matters for clinical adoption: minimal user burden (a single, unannotated meal image), explainability (an auditable record), and privacy (locally hosted inference). We introduce Open-KNEAD, a knowledge-grounded agentic framework for meal nutrition estimation that is training-free and locally deployable. Each decomposed food item is grounded to a Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies (FNDDS) code via selective, nutrient-aware retrieval, composing an auditable per-item record. Across two open MLLM families and three cuisines, Open-KNEAD improves portion estimates over both prior grounding methods and direct estimation in most backbone-dataset settings. An agent-internal recipe-prior step further recovers the invisible cooking-added energy that biases estimates on non-US cuisine. The advantage is largest on the dietitian-verified ACETADA dataset, where the local open agent surpasses the direct portion estimates of two frontier closed models by roughly $30\%$ and $53\%$, all while keeping every meal image on local hardware. We release the Open-KNEAD framework and its agent-ready FNDDS knowledge base.