Decentralized Conformal Novelty Detection via Quantized Model Exchange

Uncertainty quantification is essential in high-stakes machine learning tasks. However, one of the principled solutions, conformal prediction, faces challenges under limited local calibration data, privacy constraints, and data heterogeneity. In multi-agent settings, existing works do not simultaneously and satisfactorily address these challenges with guarantees either limited to averages across agents or losing validity in heterogeneous settings. Hence, we propose personalized federated weighted conformal prediction (PFWCP), a framework that combines local density ratio weighting with weighted quantile aggregation to correct for heterogeneity while preserving privacy. The method yields asymptotically valid marginal and calibration-conditional coverage guarantees for each participating agent and supports protocols with one-shot communication. Theoretical analysis presents an adjustment to the coverage variance, governed by an effective sample size expression, which is necessary in the context of weighted conformal prediction, and experiments on synthetic and real datasets show improved calibration quality over state-of-the-art federated conformal baselines.

We propose PRISM-FCP (Partial shaRing and robust calIbration with Statistical Margins for Federated Conformal Prediction), a communication-efficient Byzantine-robust federated conformal prediction framework that uses partial model sharing to mitigate stochastic model-poisoning attacks during training and histogram-based filtering to mitigate adversarial calibration submissions. Existing approaches address adversarial behavior only in the calibration stage, leaving the learned model susceptible to poisoned updates. In contrast, PRISM-FCP mitigates attacks end-to-end. During training, clients partially share updates by transmitting only $M$ of $D$ parameters per round. This attenuates the expected energy of an adversary's perturbation in the aggregated update by a factor of $M/D$, yielding lower mean-square error (MSE) and tighter prediction intervals. During calibration, clients convert nonconformity scores into characterization vectors, compute distance-based maliciousness scores, and downweight or filter suspected Byzantine contributions before estimating the conformal quantile. Extensive experiments on both synthetic data and the UCI Superconductivity dataset demonstrate that PRISM-FCP maintains near-nominal empirical coverage in the studied Byzantine settings while avoiding the interval inflation observed in standard FCP, with reduced communication. These results support PRISM-FCP as a robust and communication-efficient approach to federated uncertainty quantification.

Decentralized federated learning (DFL) has emerged as a transformative server-free paradigm that enables collaborative learning over large-scale heterogeneous networks. However, it continues to face fundamental challenges, including data heterogeneity, restrictive assumptions for theoretical analysis, and degraded convergence when standard communication- or privacyenhancing techniques are applied. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper develops a novel algorithm, PaME (DFL by Partial Message Exchange). The central principle is to allow only randomly selected sparse coordinates to be exchanged between two neighbor nodes. Consequently, PaME achieves substantial reductions in communication costs while still preserving a high level of privacy, without sacrificing accuracy. Moreover, grounded in rigorous analysis, the algorithm is shown to converge at a linear rate under the gradient to be locally Lipschitz continuous and the communication matrix to be doubly stochastic. These two mild assumptions not only dispense with many restrictive conditions commonly imposed by existing DFL methods but also enables PaME to effectively address data heterogeneity. Furthermore, comprehensive numerical experiments demonstrate its superior performance compared with several representative decentralized learning algorithms.