Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers

Length-dependent logit rescaling is widely used to stabilize long-context self-attention, but existing analyses and methods suggest conflicting inverse-temperature laws for the context length $n$, ranging from $(\log n)^{1/2}$ to $\log n$ and $(\log n)^2$. We provide a general theory showing that the desirable scale is determined by the gap-counting function $N_n$ of each attention row. Counting how many competitors lie within each gap from the maximum, we define an upper-tail accumulation scale and prove that it gives the critical inverse-temperature scale for softmax concentration: below this scale, the top competitors remain unseparated, whereas above it, the attention entropy collapses. This framework unifies prior scaling laws as different $N_n$ and yields a direct diagnostic for attention-score families, from idealized theoretical models to more practical transformers.

Long contexts have become standard in pretrained LLMs, yet they remain expensive to run: prefill compute grows quadratically with sequence length, and every decode step re-reads a key-value cache that grows linearly with it. Sparse attention cuts these costs by attending only to a relevant subset of past tokens, but selecting that subset is itself expensive. We present SpotAttention, a lightweight selector that attaches to a frozen pretrained transformer and learns by KL distillation to estimate its attention distribution. The selector picks the top-K keys each query attends to, and because its estimate is a calibrated distribution, a dual top-p rule reads the per-query, per-layer budget directly from it. Across Qwen3 (dense, 4B-32B) and Qwen3.5 (hybrid linear/full attention, 4B-9B), SpotAttention matches dense accuracy at contexts up to 128K tokens, eight times the training length. Decode at L=128K runs 3.9x faster than FlashAttention and 1.8x faster than Twilight, the strongest training-free baseline. Quantizing the selector's K-cache to INT4 or FP4 microscale shrinks it 3.5x at no accuracy cost.

Transformers with self-attention modules as their core components have become an integral architecture in modern large language and foundation models. In this paper, we study the evolution of tokens in deep encoder-only transformers at inference time which is described in the large-token limit by a mean-field continuity equation. Leveraging ideas from the convergence analysis of interacting multi-particle systems, with particles corresponding to tokens, we prove that the token distribution rapidly concentrates onto the push-forward of the initial distribution under a projection map induced by the key, query, and value matrices, and remains metastable for moderate times. Specifically, we show that the Wasserstein distance of the two distributions scales like $\sqrt{{\log(β+1)}/β}\exp(Ct)+\exp(-ct)$ in terms of the temperature parameter $β^{-1}\to 0$ and inference time $t\geq 0$. For the proof, we establish Lyapunov-type estimates for the zero-temperature equation, identify its limit as $t\to\infty$, and employ a stability estimate in Wasserstein space together with a quantitative Laplace principle to couple the two equations. Our result implies that for time scales of order $\logβ$ the token distribution concentrates at the identified limiting distribution. Numerical experiments confirm this and, beyond that, complement our theory by showing that for finite $β$ and large $t$ the dynamics enter a different terminal phase, dominated by the spectrum of the value matrix.