Beyond Static Bias: Adaptive Multi-Fidelity Bandits with Improving Proxies
Authors: Muyun Lu, Haoyang Hong, Huazheng Wang, Ying Lin
Organizations: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Houston · School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Oregon State University
Abstract
As an extension of the classical multi-armed bandit problem, multi-fidelity multi-armed bandits (MF-MAB) enable individual arms to be evaluated using diverse feedback sources that vary in both cost and accuracy. Prior stochastic models typically assume fixed low-to-high fidelity discrepancies, whereas modern proxy sources, such as learning-based simulators and Large Language Models (LLMs), can be improved using additional calibration. We investigate adaptive MF-MAB with improving proxy sources, and focus on the canonical two-fidelity case in which the low-fidelity source becomes more informative with repeated use. To capture this dynamic, we introduce a selected-average mismatch bound that converts dynamic low-fidelity observations into improvement-aware confidence bounds for the high-fidelity target. We propose the Threshold-Based Adaptive Continuation Companion (TACC), an optimistic algorithm that uses a bounded continuation rule to decide when low-fidelity sampling remains cost-effective and when to escalate. We prove an instance-dependent regret bound showing that, for detected intermediate arms, adaptive continuation replaces logarithmic high-fidelity confirmation with bounded low-fidelity continuation. Experiments on synthetic bandits and an LLM-as-a-judge policy-evaluation task examine when continuation improves cost-weighted regret.
The classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem tackles the challenge of accruing maximum reward while making decisions under uncertainty. However, in applications, often the goal is to minimize cost subject to a constraint on the minimum permissible reward, an objective captured by multi-armed bandits with cost-subsidy (MAB-CS). Of interest to this paper is the setting where the quality (reward) constraint is specified relative to the unknown best reward and the cost of each arm is known. We characterize the expected sub-optimal samples required by any policy by proving instance-dependent lower bounds that offer new insight into the problem and are a strict generalization of prior bounds. Then, we propose an algorithm called Cost-Ordered Feasibility (COF) that leverages our insight and intelligently combine samples from all arms to gauge the feasibility of a cheap arm. Thereafter, we analyze COF to establish instance-dependent upper bounds on its expected cumulative cost and quality regret, i.e., relative to the cheapest feasible arm. Finally, we empirically validate the merits of COF, comparing it to baselines from the literature through extensive simulation experiments on the MovieLens and Goodreads datasets as well as representative synthetic instances. Not only does our paper develop qualitatively better theoretical regret upper bounds, but COF also convincingly demonstrates improved empirical performance.
Contextual bandit algorithms suffer from high regret during cold-start, when the learner has insufficient data to distinguish good arms from bad. We propose augmenting Disjoint LinUCB with LLM pseudo-observations: after each round, a large language model predicts counterfactual rewards for the unplayed arms, and these predictions are injected into the learner as weighted pseudo-observations. The injection weight is controlled by a calibration-gated decay schedule that tracks the LLM's prediction accuracy on played arms via an exponential moving average; high calibration error suppresses the LLM's influence, while accurate predictions receive higher weight during the critical early rounds. We evaluate on two contextual bandit environments - UCI Mushroom (2-arm, asymmetric rewards) and MIND-small (5-arm news recommendation) - and find that when equipped with a task-specific prompt, LLM pseudo-observations reduce cumulative regret by 19% on MIND relative to pure LinUCB. However, generic counterfactual prompt framing increases regret on both environments, demonstrating that prompt design is the dominant factor, more important than the choice of decay schedule or calibration gating parameters. We analyze the failure modes of calibration gating on domains with small prediction errors and provide a theoretical motivation for the bias-variance trade-off governing pseudo-observation weight.
Maksim Pershin, Ivan Golovanov, Pavel Baltabaev +1
Selecting the best large language model (LLM) for a fixed benchmark is often expensive, since exhaustive evaluation requires running every model on every example. Multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms can reduce the number of LLM calls by sequentially selecting the next model-example pair to evaluate, thereby avoiding wasted evaluations on clearly underperforming models. Further savings can be achieved by predicting model scores from the partially observed model-example score matrix using low-rank factorization. However, such predictions are not ground truth: they can be biased and may therefore lead to incorrect identification of the best model. In this work, we propose a principled framework that combines MAB with cheap predicted scores without compromising statistical validity. Specifically, we derive doubly robust estimators of each model's performance that use the low-rank predictions to reduce variance. This enables the construction of valid finite-sample confidence intervals in our setting, where models are selected adaptively and examples are sampled without replacement. Empirical results on real-world benchmarks show that our approach reduces the number of required evaluations, yielding meaningful savings in compute and cost while accurately identifying the best-performing model.