Data-driven transport modelling without overfit

Real-time urban governance depends not only on knowing where people are, but on how they move between places, directional flows that could be conventionally resolved by tracking individuals through space, i.e., expensive to sustain and built on traces that are highly unique and readily re-identifiable. Here we show that this directional structure need not be observed to be known: aggregated counts which cities already collect retain enough information to reconstruct the temporal evolution of origin-destination (OD) matrix. Using an uncertainty-aware physics-informed framework, we infer future OD flows from area-level counts alone across twelve mobility datasets from cities in the United States and China, reaching accuracy comparable to models that take historical OD matrices as input. Probabilistic modeling corrects the systematic underestimation of sparse, high-value corridors and yields calibrated predictions consistent with observed flows. Architectures that respect the generation-before-assignment logic of transport planning recover interactions more faithfully, indicating that location-level spatial heterogeneity should be preserved before pairwise interactions are reconstructed. Because inference requires only aggregated observations after training, recovering interactions this way reduces reliance on continuous individual-level tracking, pointing toward a more deployable and less exposure-heavy basis for real-time urban intelligence.

Large language models (LLMs) and multimodal large models (MLLMs) are increasingly used for transportation tasks such as regulation question answering, traffic management support, engineering review, and autonomous-driving scene reasoning. Yet transportation workflows are rule-intensive, computation-intensive, safety-critical, and inherently multimodal. Existing general benchmarks provide limited evidence of whether a model can apply regulations correctly, perform verifiable engineering calculations, or interpret traffic scenes reliably, while the small number of public transportation benchmarks remain narrow in scope and rarely support fine-grained diagnosis across text, images, and point-cloud data. To address this gap, we present TRIP-Evaluate, an open multimodal benchmark for large models in transportation. The benchmark organizes 837 items using a role-task-knowledge taxonomy that covers vehicle, traffic-management, traveler, and planning-and-design functions. Each item is annotated with capability, modality, and difficulty labels, enabling diagnosis from overall accuracy down to specific failure modes. The current release includes 596 text items, 198 image items, and 43 point-cloud items. TRIP-Evaluate also standardizes item construction, quality control, prompting, decoding, and scoring to improve cross-model comparability. Results on a diverse panel of models show that text-based performance is improving, but substantial weaknesses remain in multi-step engineering calculation, rule-constrained reasoning, multimodal scene understanding, and point-cloud understanding. Overall, TRIP-Evaluate provides a reproducible, diagnosable, and engineering-aligned evaluation baseline for model selection, regression testing, and safer deployment in transportation applications.

Traffic simulations, essential for planning urban transit infrastructure interventions, require vehicle-category-specific origin-destination (OD) data. Existing data sources are imperfect: sparse tollbooth sensors provide accurate vehicle counts by category, while extensive mobility data from cellular network activity captures aggregated crowd movement, but lack modal disaggregation and have systematic biases. This study develops a machine learning framework to correct and disaggregate cellular network data using sparse tollbooth counts as ground truth. The model uses temporal and spatial features to learn the complex relationship between aggregated mobility data and vehicular data. The framework infers destinations from transit routes and implements routing logic to distribute corrected flows between OD pairs. This approach is applied to a bus depot expansion in Trondheim, Norway, generating hourly OD matrices by vehicle length category. The results show how limited but accurate sensor measurements can correct extensive but aggregated mobility data to produce grounded estimates of background vehicular traffic flows. These macro-scale estimates can be refined for micro-scale analysis at desired locations. The framework provides a generalisable approach for generating origin-destination data from cellular network data. This enables downstream tasks, like detailed traffic simulations for infrastructure planning in data-scarce contexts, supporting urban planners in making informed decisions.