On Uniform Error Bounds for Kernel Regression under Non-Gaussian Noise

Non-conservative uncertainty bounds are essential for making reliable predictions about latent functions from noisy data, and thus, a key enabler for safe learning-based control. In this domain, kernel methods such as Gaussian process regression are established techniques, thanks to their inherent uncertainty quantification mechanism. Still, existing bounds either pose strong assumptions on the underlying noise distribution, are conservative, do not directly apply in the multi-output case, or are difficult to integrate into downstream tasks. This paper addresses these limitations by presenting a tight, deterministic bound for multi-output functions in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs) subject to bounded noise. It is obtained through an unconstrained, duality-based formulation, which shares the same structure as classic Gaussian process confidence bounds, and can thus be straightforwardly integrated into downstream optimization pipelines. We show that the proposed bound generalizes existing results and illustrate its application using an example inspired by quadrotor dynamics learning.

Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require reliable uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. To address this, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty in multivariate regression based on strictly proper kernel scores. The framework provides a principled recipe for designing new uncertainty measures whose behavior, such as tail sensitivity or out-of-distribution responsiveness, is governed by the choice of the underlying kernel, while also encompassing existing measures under a joint analysis. We prove explicit correspondences between properties of the kernel and behavior of resulting uncertainty measures, yielding concrete design guidelines for practitioners. Extensive experiments across structured regression tasks, including spatial and functional domains, demonstrate effectiveness on downstream tasks such as out-of-distribution detection and active learning, and reveal that different kernel choices lead to distinct trade-offs, offering practitioners guidance for task-specific selection.

We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or exponential families, it only requires knowledge about some mild regularity of the measurement noise, such as it is being symmetric or exchangeable. We show, by building on recent results from finite-sample system identification, that by perturbing the residuals in the gradient of the objective function, information can be extracted about the amount of uncertainty our model has. Particularly, we provide an algorithm to build exact, non-asymptotically guaranteed, distribution-free confidence regions for ideal, noise-free representations of the function we try to estimate. For the typical convex quadratic problems and symmetric noises, the regions are star convex centered around a given nominal estimate, and have efficient ellipsoidal outer approximations. Finally, we illustrate the ideas on typical kernel methods, such as LS-SVC, KRR, $\varepsilon$-SVR and kernelized LASSO.