Spatial Adapter: Structured Spatial Decomposition and Closed-Form Covariance for Frozen Predictors

Residual error propagation remains a fundamental problem in recurrent models, where small prediction inaccuracies compound over time and degrade long-horizon performance. Accurately modeling the correlation structure of such residuals is critical for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic multivariate timeseries forecasting. While recent time-series deep models efficiently parametrize time-varying contemporaneous correlations, they often assume temporal independence of errors and neglect spatial correlation across the observed network. In this paper, we introduce Teger, a structured uncertainty module that overcomes the spa- tial and temporal limitations of error-correlated autoregressive forecasting. Teger proposes a spatial curvature-aware graph rewiring mechanism explicitly strengthening information-bottleneck edges identified by discrete Forman curvature. The component is integrated into a low-rank-plus-diagonal covariance head, preserving tractable inference via the Woodbury identity. Teger is backbone-agnostic, requiring only the latent state produced by any autoregressive encoder. We provide theoretical evidence of Teger, and experimentally evaluate it on LSTM, Transformer, and xLSTM backbones across four real-world spatio-temporal datasets, showing consistent improvement in Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We further provide a formal theoretical analysis connecting curvature-aware rewiring to (i) oversquashing alleviation, (ii) improved spectral connectivity, (iii) reduced effective resistance, and (iv) improved covariance calibration bounds

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.

Several geometry-aware approaches to low-rank adaptation have emerged for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large pre-trained models. These methods aim to take full advantage of the geometric structure of low-rank manifolds for improving the efficiency in subspace utilization and reducing redundancy by enforcing orthogonality constraints during optimization. The strong empirical results of these techniques have motivated further study into whether predictions from such geometry-based adaptation methods could be overconfident. In this paper, we build on the singular value decomposition factorization of adapters to develop a framework based on Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD). In this formulation, the low-rank matrices are transported along the Stiefel manifold to match the targeted distributions while retaining their crucial geometric structure. Since this geometry-aware SVGD approach provides multiple solutions during inference, it supports uncertainty quantification and produces better-calibrated adapters on the Stiefel manifold. Extensive experiments show that our method delivers strong model calibration and attains higher prediction accuracy than SVGD and related uncertainty estimation methods that are formulated in Euclidean space.