Structural MRI-to-amyloid PET synthesis has been proposed as a non-invasive alternative for amyloid assessment in Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, reported performance of identical models varies widely across studies, and increasingly complex architectures have not led to consistent gains. This inconsistency is thought to be caused by a fundamental biological ambiguity: MRI captures neurodegeneration, while PET measures amyloid pathology - two processes that are often temporally decoupled in AD. As a result, similar MRI patterns may correspond to different amyloid states, creating ambiguous one-to-many mappings. MRI-to-amyloid PET synthesis may therefore be intrinsically ill-posed; however, this idea has yet to be tested scientifically. The aim of this work is to test this hypothesis through two controlled experiments. We first control the training distribution by stratifying paired MRI-PET data by amyloid and neurodegeneration status. Using two standard synthesis models under a controlled design, we show that biologically unambiguous mappings are learnable in isolation, but performance collapses when data ambiguity is introduced. This demonstrates that ambiguity in the data distribution, rather than architectural capacity, constrains performance. Second, we show that introducing orthogonal biological information in the form of plasma biomarkers resolves this ambiguity. When multimodal inputs are incorporated, performance improves and stability is restored. Together, these findings suggest that limited and inconsistent performance in MRI-to-amyloid PET synthesis is explained by intrinsic biological ambiguity, and that stable, meaningful progress requires multimodal integration rather than architectural complexity.
Tau positron emission tomography supports Alzheimer's disease staging but is difficult to scale because of tracer, scanner, and radiation constraints. Synthesis from structural MRI is therefore attractive, but it is a particularly difficult setting. T1-weighted and FLAIR MRI provide anatomy and disease correlated morphology, but they do not directly measure Tau-PET relevant signal. We introduce SFL-Net, a multi-input synthesis framework that predicts Tau-PET from T1-weighted and FLAIR MRI. SFL-Net factorizes the latent representation into shared, T1-specific, FLAIR-specific, and complementary pathways and preserves anatomical detail through latent structural conditioning rather than direct encoder-decoder connections. We evaluated SFL-Net and baseline models using 605 training and 83 validation subjects from ADNI-3 and OASIS-3 datasets. Evaluation included raw image fidelity, standardized uptake value ratio agreement, high uptake overlap, regional Bland-Altman bias, braak derived stage agreement, non-inferiority sensitivity analysis, and latent component Shapley attribution. SFL-Net performed competitively on both clinically relevant and reconstruction metrics, while also delivering explicit source level auditability that conventional UNet derived models lack.
While longitudinal brain PET imaging is the gold standard for quantifying the spatiotemporal accumulation of Beta-amyloid, its widespread clinical utility is constrained by high operational costs and cumulative radiation risks. Recent deep generative models show promise in longitudinal image synthesis; however, they often fail to capture subtle pathological progression due to identity drift and a persistent bias toward trivially replicating baseline signal intensities rather than modeling temporal transition. To this end, we propose Delta-Diffusion, a novel progression-aware framework that redefines longitudinal PET synthesis as a conditional Poisson Diffusion Bridge (PDB) process. Unlike standard diffusion models that start from Gaussian noise, our PDB formulation is mathematically anchored to the subject's baseline PET, effectively transforming the generative task into a conditional distribution transition of the amyloid trajectory. To handle heteroscedastic nature of PET imaging, we introduce a physically-grounded Poisson perturbation within a Diffusion Transformer (DiT). This architecture uses adaptive scale-shift modulation to precisely calibrate the synthesis with the elapsed clinical interval and structural MRI context. A volume-of-interest balanced objective is designed to emphasize sparse, high-risk regions of amyloid accumulation. Validated on two cohorts with 542 subjects, Delta-Diffusion demonstrates superior performance in capturing longitudinal variations in amyloid deposition compared to state-of-the-art methods, offering a robust computational framework for tracking disease progression.
Cortical hypometabolism measured by Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography (FDG-PET) is a highly sensitive biomarker for dementia diagnosis. However, high costs, radiation exposure, and limited accessibility constrain its clinical utility. While cross-modal synthesis from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) offers a promising alternative, existing volumetric generation methods do not explicitly account for the highly folded cortical geometry, where disease-related patterns predominantly reside. To address this, we introduce a novel surface-based diffusion bridge framework DB-SUiT for MRI-to-PET translation that operates natively on the cortical manifold. A conditional Spherical U-shaped vision Transformer (SUiT) is specifically designed to model the intricate cross-modal relationships while preserving surface topology. It combines spherical convolutional encoders for multi-scale surface feature extraction with bottleneck Transformers to capture long-range spatial dependencies, while incorporating demographic and subcortical conditions to refine the synthesis. Evaluated on two datasets, including subjects with different dementia types, DB-SUiT demonstrates high-fidelity synthesis that substantially outperforms other baselines. In automated dementia classification, synthesized PET surfaces improve performance over MRI by 14.2% and PET volumes by 11.3%, approaching the performance of real PET surfaces. In a blinded reader study, synthetic PET achieved 85.5% diagnostic accuracy, compared with 75.8% for MRI and 95.2% for real PET. This further demonstrates cross-cohort and cross-pathology generalization, as the model was evaluated without retraining on an external cohort that included a dementia subtype not represented during training. Our code is available at https://github.com/ai-med/DB-SUiT.
Yitong Li, Alexandra Samoylova, Fabian Bongratz +4