Uncertainty quantification has become an important factor in understanding the data representations produced by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Despite their predictive capabilities being ever useful across industrial workspaces, the inherent uncertainty induced by the nature of the data is a huge mitigating factor to GNN performance. While aleatoric uncertainty is the result of noisy and incomplete stochastic data such as missing edges or over-smoothing, epistemic uncertainty arises from lack of knowledge about a system or model (e.g., a graph's topology or node feature representation), which can be reduced by gathering more data and information. In this paper, we propose an original new framework in which node-level epistemic uncertainty is modelled in a belief function (finite random set) formalism. The resulting Random-Set Graph Neural Networks have a belief-function head predicting a random set over the list of classes, from which both a precise probability prediction and a measure of epistemic uncertainty can be obtained. Extensive experiments on 9 different graph learning datasets, including real-world autonomous driving benchmarks as such Nuscene and ROAD, demonstrate RS-GNN's superior uncertainty quantification capabilities
While deep ensembles are widely considered to be the default method for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, their effectiveness for graph-structured data is often simply assumed based on successes in domains like computer vision. We investigate standard deep ensembles specifically for message-passing graph neural networks. Benchmarking across seven datasets representing varied tasks and complexities, we reveal that ensembles provide surprisingly little improvement over a single model. Instead, the observed marginal gains stem primarily from stabilizing optimization noise in point predictions rather than yielding meaningfully better uncertainty estimates. Through an aleatoric-epistemic decomposition, we identify epistemic collapse: independently trained networks consistently converge to overly similar predictions. Because disagreement is the fundamental mechanism through which ensembles capture epistemic uncertainty, this lack of diversity neutralizes their key advantage. Analyzing this phenomenon further, we suggest this collapse is driven by functional rather than weight-space convexity, where distinct parameter solutions induce almost identical behavior. Our results suggest that deep ensemble success does not seamlessly transfer to graph machine learning.
Pedro C. Vieira, Pedro Ribeiro, Viacheslav Borovitskiy
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge. In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are rarely satisfied in practice, and achieving reliable UQ typically requires costly resampling or post-hoc calibration. To address these issues, we introduce Quantile-free Prediction Interval GNN (QpiGNN), a framework that builds on quantile regression (QR) to enable GNN-based UQ by directly optimizing coverage and interval width without requiring quantile inputs or post-processing. QpiGNN employs a dual-head architecture that decouples prediction and uncertainty, and is trained with label-only supervision through a quantile-free joint loss. This design allows efficient training and yields robust prediction intervals, with theoretical guarantees of asymptotic coverage and near-optimal width under mild assumptions. Experiments on 19 synthetic and real-world benchmarks show QpiGNN achieves average 22% higher coverage and 50% narrower intervals than baselines, while ensuring efficiency and robustness to noise and structural shifts.
Hypergraph neural networks have shown powerful capability in modeling higher-order relations, yet their predictive uncertainty remains underexplored. Unlike pairwise graphs, uncertainty in hypergraphs arises not only from noisy attributes and ambiguous labels, but also from variations in node-hyperedge incidence structures and complex higher-order dependencies. Existing approaches mainly estimate uncertainty from final predictions or rely on computationally expensive ensembles and Bayesian inference, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty evolution during representation learning. In this paper, we propose Hypergraph Neural Stochastic Diffusion(HyperNSD), a stochastic differential equation framework for uncertainty estimation on hypergraphs. HyperNSD models hypergraph representations as stochastic processes evolving over node-hyperedge incidence structures. A learnable drift function captures deterministic higher-order diffusion dynamics, while a learnable stochastic forcing function characterizes structural ambiguity and representation noise. Predictive uncertainty is directly quantified through the variability of stochastic representation trajectories, providing an intrinsic uncertainty measure beyond post-hoc confidence scores. We formulate HyperNSD with neural drift and diffusion networks, enabling joint learning of prediction and uncertainty propagation. Theoretical analyses establish well posedness, perturbation stability,permutation equivariance, and numerical convergence of the proposed stochastic dynamics. Experiments on multiple hypergraph benchmarks demonstrate that HyperNSD achieves reliable uncertainty estimation for out-of-distribution and misclassification detection while preserving competitive prediction accuracy. These results provide a principled stochastic-dynamical framework for trustworthy higher-order representation learning.