Epistemic Uncertainty

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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Attention Dispersion as a Diagnostic Signal for Hallucination in Large Language Models
Sep 16, 2026Shardul P. More, Tanuja S. PawarLarge Language Model Uncertainty Hallucinations
Bio-inspired Learning and Decision-Making with Probabilistic In-Memory Computing Hardware: Part 1
Sep 12, 2026Thomas Dalgaty, Eiji Kawasaki, Miguel de Prado +2Bio-Inspired Framework Probabilistic Inference
Tracing sources of epistemic uncertainty in deep learning predictions: homo- and hetero-scedastic linearized estimators
Aug 7, 2026Pierre Nodet, Thomas GeorgeEpistemic Uncertainty Heteroskedasticity
A Unified Risk View of Uncertainty: Posterior Risk for Disentanglement and Evaluation Beyond Proxies
Aug 6, 2026Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler +2Epistemic Uncertainty Posterior
Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying
Aug 6, 2026Shimon Honda, Takuma Miyaguchi, Koji Koizumi +3Epistemic Uncertainty Bayesian Experimental Design
SVI-DAG: A Structured Variational Inference Approach to Bayesian Causal Discovery
Aug 5, 2026Shrenik ZinageCausal Foundation Models Bayesian Networks
Leveraging System-Level Observations to Inform Bayesian Learning of Model Parameters for Quantitative Verification
Aug 4, 2026Simos Gerasimou, Xingyu ZhaoEpistemic Uncertainty Bayesian
Intention Inference Under Execution Noise: Separating Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Social Dilemmas
Aug 3, 2026Kival Mahadew, Jonathan ShockPartially Observable Markov Decision Process Initial Human Belief Distributions
Explainable AI for the EU Right to Explanation: A Systematic Review of the Law-XAI Translation Gap
Aug 3, 2026Benjamin Fresz, Elena Dubovitskaya, Marco F. HuberExplainable Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Governance
Imprecise Belief Fusion Improves Multi-agent Social Learning
Aug 2, 2026Zixuan Liu, Jonathan Lawry, Michael CrosscombeUncertainty-Aware Fusion Singular Learning Theory
From Hybrid Mechanistic--Data-Driven Modeling Toward Neuro-Symbolic AI: What, Why, and How
Jul 24, 2026Moein E. Samadi, Andreas SchuppertNeuro-Symbolic Framework Hybrid
Bayesian uncertainty estimation improves clinical decision making in medical AI agents
Jul 22, 2026Frederik Hauke, Patrick Wienholt, Christiane Kuhl +4Epistemic Uncertainty Clinical Decision Support
Evaluating Epistemic Uncertainty: Beyond OOD Detection and Active Learning
Jul 16, 2026Jakub Paplhám, Willem Waegeman, Eyke Hüllermeier +1Epistemic Uncertainty Bayesian
Decision Making Needs Uncertainty Quantification [Lecture Notes]
Jul 15, 2026Osvaldo SimeoneEpistemic Uncertainty Decisions
Validating LLMs in social science: Epistemic threats and emerging norms
Jul 8, 2026Meera Desai, Dallas Card, Abigail Z. JacobsComputational Social Science Large Language Model Reliability
Heckman-Corrected Epistemic Uncertainty: Selection on Unobservables Defeats Importance Weighting
Jul 7, 2026Gunner Levi HoweSelection Bias Covariate Shift
Uncertainty Quantification for Flow-Based Vision-Language-Action Models
Jun 16, 2026Ralf Römer, Maximilian Seeliger, Saida Liu +5Flow-Matching Vision-Language-Action Vision-Language-Action Models
Exposure Bias as Epistemic Underidentification in Recursive Forecasting
Jun 11, 2026Riku Green, Zahraa S. Abdallah, Telmo M Silva FilhoEpistemic Uncertainty Epistemic Stance
Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind
Jun 10, 2026Robin YoungEpistemic Uncertainty Epistemic Actions
What Uncertainties Do We Need for Dynamical Systems?
Jun 10, 2026Yusuf Sale, Christopher Bülte, Felix Czaja +2Epistemic Uncertainty Dynamical Systems
Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification
Jun 9, 2026Arthur HoarauEpistemic Uncertainty
SHAPO: Sharpness-Aware Policy Optimization for Safe Exploration
Jun 8, 2026Kaustubh Mani, Yann Pequignot, Vincent Mai +1Multi-Objective Policy Optimization Autonomous Exploration Strategies
The AI Epistemic Deference Index: A Continuous Measure of Sycophancy
Jun 5, 2026Alejandro Botas, Paul de Font-Reaulx, Luke HewittSycophancy Artificial Intelligence Evaluation
EURO-5K: When Does Domain Pretraining Matter? Benchmarking Transformers for EU Reporting Obligation Extraction
Jun 2, 2026Marios Koniaris, Vasileios Kotronis, Eugenia Giannini +1Text Corpora Report
Traceable by Design: An LLM Pipeline and Dashboard for EU Regulatory Consultation Analysis
May 29, 2026Thales Bertaglia, Haoyang Gui, Catalina Goanta +1Regulation Large Language Model Pipelines
On the Construction and Implications of Low-Loss Valleys in LoRA-based Bayesian Inference
May 28, 2026Daniel Dold, Emanuel Sommer, Julius Kobialka +2Bayesian Loss Landscape
Soft Specialists: $α$ -Rényi Ensembles for Uncertainty-Aware LLM Post-Training
May 26, 2026Paula Cordero-Encinar, Georgy Tyukin, Andrew B. DuncanLarge Language Model Post-Training Large Language Model Uncertainty
Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting
May 26, 2026Hui Dai, Ryan Teehan, Parsa Torabian +1Large Language Model Uncertainty Epistemic Uncertainty
It's Not Always Sycophancy: Measuring LLM Conformity as a Function of Epistemic Uncertainty
May 26, 2026Kevin H. Guo, Chao Yan, Avinash Baidya +5Large Language Model Uncertainty Conformity
On the evolution of the concept of probability as a mirror of the evolution of reason
May 26, 2026Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Vincent Courtillot, Dominique Gibert +6Epistemic Uncertainty Probability
Neuronal Stochastic Attention Circuit (NSAC) for Probabilistic Representation Learning
May 25, 2026Waleed Razzaq, Yun-Bo ZhaoUncertainty-Aware Inference Bayesian Neural Networks
Conformalised imprecise inference for robust extrapolation under limited data
May 25, 2026Yu Chen, Scott FersonConformal Inference Epistemic Uncertainty
On the Epistemic Uncertainty of Overparametrized Neural Networks
May 24, 2026David RügamerOver-Parameterized Neural Networks Epistemic Uncertainty
When Planning Fails Despite Correct Execution: On Epistemic Calibration for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems
May 22, 2026Zehao Wang, Shilong Jin, Zhao Cao +1Multi-Agent Systems Planning Methods
Breaking the Chains of Probability: Neutrosophic Logic as a New Framework for Epistemic Uncertainty in Large Language Models
May 22, 2026Maikel Yelandi Leyva-Vázquez, Florentin SmarandacheLarge Language Model Uncertainty Epistemic Uncertainty
MMD-Balls as Credal Sets: A PAC-Bayesian Framework for Epistemic Uncertainty in Test-Time Adaptation
May 20, 2026Ahanaf Hasan AriqBayesian Generalization Bounds
Hyper-V2X: Hypernetworks for Estimating Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Cooperative Bird's-Eye-View Semantic Segmentation
May 20, 2026Abhishek Dinkar Jagtap, Sanath Tiptur Sadashivaiah, Andreas FestagV2X Collaborative Perception
Reliable Automated Triage in Spanish Clinical Notes: A Hybrid Framework for Risk-Aware HIV Suspicion Identification
May 20, 2026Rodrigo Morales-Sánchez, Soto Montalvo, Raquel MartínezTriage Viral Sharing
CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support
May 19, 2026Ricardo Diaz-Rincon, Muxuan Liang, Adolfo Ramirez-Zamora +1Clinical Prediction Conformal Calibration
Descriptive versus Regulatory Uncertainty in Bounded Predictive Systems
May 17, 2026Ahmed Gamal EldinEpistemic Uncertainty Large Language Model Uncertainty
A Mutual Information Lower Bound for Multimodal Regression Active Learning
May 14, 2026Leonardo Ferreira Guilhoto, Akshat Kaushal, Paris PerdikarisActive Learning Robust Multimodal Learning
Random-Set Graph Neural Networks
May 12, 2026Tommy Woodley, Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal, Matteo Tolloso +2Graph Neural Networks Epistemic Uncertainty
Epistemic Uncertainty for Test-Time Discovery
May 11, 2026Kainat Riaz, Muhammad Ahmed Mohsin, Ahsan Bilal +5Epistemic Uncertainty Scientific Discovery
Mechanical Conscience: A Mathematical Framework for Dependability of Machine Intelligence
May 5, 2026Munkhdelgerekh Batzorig, Purevbaatar Ganbold, Kyungbin Park +2Multi-Agent Systems Multi-Robot Systems
GEM-FI: Gated Evidential Mixtures with Fisher Modulation
May 5, 2026Marco Mustafa Mohammed, Fatemeh Daneshfar, Pietro LiòEvidential Learning Epistemic Uncertainty
Uncertainty-Aware Pedestrian Attribute Recognition via Evidential Deep Learning
Apr 29, 2026Zhuofan Lou, Shihang Zhang, Fangle Zhu +2Pedestrian Detection Robust Perception
Uncertainty-Aware Reward Discounting for Mitigating Reward Hacking
Apr 29, 2026Disha SinghaReinforcement Learning From Human Feedback Epistemic Uncertainty
Beware of GeeksBearing Gifts: Building True EU Frontier AI Sovereignty
Apr 28, 2026Nick Moës, Toni Lorente, Amin Oueslati +3Digital Sovereignty Epistemic Uncertainty
Credal Concept Bottleneck Models for Epistemic-Aleatoric Uncertainty Decomposition
Apr 27, 2026Tanmoy Mukherjee, Thomas Bailleux, Pierre Marquis +1Epistemic Uncertainty Class-Incremental Concept Bottleneck Model
Complementing Self-Consistency with Cross-Model Disagreement for Uncertainty Quantification
Apr 18, 2026Kimia Hamidieh, Veronika Thost, Walter Gerych +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Epistemic Uncertainty
Retrieval-Augmented Generation Must Move Beyond Factual Grounding to Represent Diverse Opinions
Apr 13, 2026Aditya Agrawal, Alwarappan Nakkiran, Darshan Fofadiya +3Retrieval-Augmented Generation Systems Opinion Dynamics
Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach
Mar 28, 2026Xabier Gonzalez-Garcia, Siu Lun Chau, Julian Rodemann +6Epistemic Uncertainty Multiclass Classification
Not Just How Much, But Where: Decomposing Epistemic Uncertainty into Per-Class Contributions
Feb 24, 2026Mame Diarra Toure, David A. StephensEpistemic Uncertainty Bayesian
Disentangling Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Physics-Informed Neural Networks. Application to Insulation Material Degradation Prognostics
Jan 7, 2026Ibai Ramirez, Jokin Alcibar, Joel Pino +2Conventional Physics-Informed Neural Networks Predictive Uncertainty
Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty
May 25, 2025Alireza Javanmardi, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Santo M. A. R. Thies +3Conformal Prediction Epistemic Uncertainty
An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression
Apr 25, 2025Christopher Bülte, Yusuf Sale, Timo Löhr +3Reliable Uncertainty Quantification Epistemic Uncertainty

Sep 16, 2026 · cs.CLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Attention Dispersion as a Diagnostic Signal for Hallucination in Large Language Models

Shardul P. More, Tanuja S. Pawar

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently exhibit hallucinations, presenting a major barrier to reliability in complex reasoning tasks. While traditional detection methods rely on output-based confidence metrics, these logits are often miscalibrated by modern alignment techniques. In this paper, we investigate the temporal volatility of internal attention mechanisms as an alternative diagnostic signal for hallucination that does not depend on output calibration. By introducing an unsupervised metric for attention dispersion, we show that epistemic uncertainty leaves a measurable trace within intermediate layers, where spikes in attention entropy are associated with reasoning breakdowns. We evaluate our approach on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH-500) using the Qwen2.5 model family (1.5B and 3B parameters), finding statistically significant AUC improvements of up to +0.076 over output-based baselines across all tested conditions. These findings suggest that attention dispersion is a promising complement to traditional hallucination detection methods, requiring further investigation across broader model families and task domains.

Large Language Model Uncertainty Hallucinations Global Attention Mechanism Epistemic Uncertainty

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