XAI and Statistical Analysis for Reliable Intrusion Detection in the UAVIDS-2025 Dataset: From Tree to Hybrid and Tabular DNN Ensembles

Machine learning-based Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) have demonstrated superior performance in securing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) networks. However, the 'black-box' nature of these models, combined with the high dimensionality of multimodal cyber-physical data, poses significant interpretability challenges. Static visualization dashboards may struggle to present complex relationships among multimodal cyber-physical features in a form that is easy for operators to inspect and interpret. To address this, we propose a Conversational XAI interface powered by Large Language Models (LLM) to facilitate on-demand investigation. In a controlled experiment with participants, we systematically evaluated the impact of this conversational interface versus a traditional XAI Dashboard on operator understanding, trust, and reliance during post-incident auditing tasks. Our results suggest that the conversational interface was perceived as more useful than the dashboard, potentially because it helped participants access and synthesize relevant information more easily. However, this benefit was accompanied by a lower level of appropriate self-reliance, indicating a potential risk of over-reliance. One possible interpretation is that the natural-language responses made the AI advice easier to accept, which may have reduced participants' tendency to verify the underlying evidence when the IDS was incorrect. These findings point to a potential trade-off in human-AI collaboration for UAV intrusion auditing: interaction mechanisms that improve perceived usability may also increase the risk of inappropriate reliance. We conclude by discussing design implications for future XAI systems that balance seamless interaction with cognitive forcing functions to foster appropriate reliance.

The detection of previously unseen network attacks remains a major challenge for intrusion detection systems. Although supervised learning methods often perform well on known attack classes, they are limited when new attack types are not represented in the training data. Unsupervised methods are more suitable for detecting zero-day attacks, as they do not require labelled attack samples, but they often suffer from high false positive rates, which limits their real-world usefulness. This paper presents UNAD+, an enhanced framework for unknown network attack detection derived from the previously proposed Unknown Network Attack Detector (UNAD). UNAD+ combines a benign-only unsupervised ensemble with Weighted Majority Voting (WMV), a supervised refinement stage trained on pseudo-labelled detections, and a post hoc explainability layer that provides both local and global explanations. The framework was evaluated on the CICIDS2017 and NSL-KDD benchmark datasets. The results show that UNAD+ improves on the original UNAD framework, achieving F1-scores above 98% across the benchmark datasets while significantly reducing false positives and enhancing transparency and deployment suitability through integrated explainability.

Machine-learning intrusion-detection studies commonly emphasize predictive accuracy while treating explanation generation as a computationally free post-processing step. This study jointly evaluates predictive effectiveness, explanation cost, local explanation stability, and selective explanation for binary Internet of Things (IoT) intrusion detection. A leakage-safe CICIoT2023 corpus was constructed using exact 39-feature hashes, non-finite-value handling, exact-feature deduplication, conservative label-collision removal, and deterministic hash-level partitioning. Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost were evaluated on natural and balanced test distributions. TreeSHAP cost was measured, stability was assessed under prediction-preserving perturbations, and validation-calibrated policies were used to allocate explanation workload. XGBoost provided the strongest overall predictive profile, while Random Forest produced the lowest false-positive rate. At 5,000 samples, TreeSHAP required 700.759 s for Random Forest and 1.471 s for XGBoost. Random Forest showed the strongest overall base-level explanation stability; XGBoost retained high rank and directional consistency but showed greater top-feature turnover and attribution-magnitude drift. On the balanced test, about 90% false-negative explanation coverage permitted 28-32% compute savings, while about 95% coverage permitted 15-23% savings. Savings were much smaller under the attack-heavy natural prevalence. These results show that operationally useful explainable IoT intrusion detection depends on predictive quality, explanation cost, local stability, workload prevalence, and selective invocation rather than detection accuracy alone.