Conditional Attribute Estimation with Autoregressive Sequence Models

Causal Transformers model sequences through an autoregressive factorization of the joint distribution, which enables efficient left-to-right decoding and conditional likelihood computation. However, they cannot tractably sample from or evaluate arbitrary conditionals -- e.g., a block of text conditioned on past and future tokens. Recent work aims to solve this problem through novel architectures, but they often lead to sub-optimal modeling of such conditionals and degraded generations. We propose Arbitrary Conditionals GPT (AC-GPT) which introduces a simple modification to standard causal Transformers to enable evaluating and sampling from arbitrary conditionals -- including past, future, and mixed contexts -- within a single forward pass. Unlike prior approaches, our method preserves the standard left-to-right ordering and next-token prediction objective essential for both strong performance and efficient training on natural language. Crucially, this compatibility allows existing LLMs to be fine-tuned for arbitrary conditioning. Our empirical results indicate that our method outperforms baselines on modeling arbitrary conditionals, without degrading standard left-to-right performance.

Language models trained on observed sequences are often described as learning the conditional distribution of the next token given previous tokens. This description is only conditionally correct. A model trained on realized token trajectories does not observe full conditional laws; it receives sampled continuations. Moreover, real language generation is conditioned not only on previous words but also on non-textual circumstances: facts, events, intentions, goals, beliefs, social context, and task-specific constraints. This paper distinguishes three objects that are often conflated: the full conditional language process conditioned on latent circumstances, the marginal text-only process obtained by integrating those circumstances out, and the model-induced distribution learned from finite observed corpora. The paper argues that interpreting model training as estimating the marginal text-only law requires strong assumptions of stationarity, representativeness, and ergodicity, assumptions that are standard in statistical estimation but problematic when applied to heterogeneous language corpora. Even if these assumptions hold, the marginal text-only law is useful only when the observed prefix is an approximately sufficient statistic for the latent circumstances relevant to continuation. In information-theoretic terms, usefulness requires that the residual conditional mutual information between the next token and the omitted circumstances, given the observed text, be small. The paper then extends this argument to heterogeneous training corpora. Finally, the paper interprets Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and tool use as conditional sufficiency devices.

Generative AI disrupts the practice of giving credit to work that came before. Ideally, a generative model would give credit to any work on which its output depends in a significant way. \emph{Counterfactual credit attribution} (CCA) is a technical condition formalizing this goal--a relaxation of differential privacy--recently introduced by Livni, Moran, Nissim, and Pabbaraju [2024] who studied it in the PAC learning setting. We initiate the study of CCA generative models. Specifically, we consider autoregressive models giving credit to a deployment-time dataset (e.g., a RAG database). We uncover barriers to two natural approaches to CCA autoregressive models. First, we show that imposing CCA on the underlying next-token predictor does not guarantee that the model is CCA: CCA does not compose autoregressively (unlike DP). Second, we consider a different approach to building CCA models which we call \emph{retrofitting}. Retrofitting takes a model that does not attribute credit, and adds credit onto it. We prove a lower bound for CCA retrofitting under a weak optimality requirement. Given black-box access to the starting model, retrofitting requires query complexity exponential in the length of the model's outputs.