Dual-Dimensional Consistency: Balancing Budget and Quality in Adaptive Inference-Time Scaling

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive reasoning capabilities by scaling test-time compute via long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, recent findings suggest that raw token counts are unreliable proxies for reasoning quality: increased generation length does not consistently correlate with accuracy and may instead signal "overthinking," leading to performance degradation. In this work, we quantify inference-time effort by identifying deep-thinking tokens -- tokens where internal predictions undergo significant revisions in deeper model layers prior to convergence. Across four challenging mathematical and scientific benchmarks (AIME 24/25, HMMT 25, and GPQA-diamond) and a diverse set of reasoning-focused models (GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1, and Qwen3), we show that deep-thinking ratio (the proportion of deep-thinking tokens in a generated sequence) exhibits a robust and consistently positive correlation with accuracy, substantially outperforming both length-based and confidence-based baselines. Leveraging this insight, we introduce Think@n, a test-time scaling strategy that prioritizes samples with high deep-thinking ratios. We demonstrate that Think@n matches or exceeds standard self-consistency performance while significantly reducing inference costs by enabling the early rejection of unpromising generations based on short prefixes.

Test-time scaling improves LLM reasoning by generating and aggregating multiple candidate answers, yet many pipelines use fixed per-query budgets that spend the same compute on easy and difficult prompts. These fixed budgets are also difficult to inspect because they do not explain why a given prompt receives a particular number of samples. We propose adaptive} test-time scaling with a lightweight fuzzy controller that maps interpretable signals, including estimated prompt complexity and model confidence, to a per-query sampling budget. The controller assigns fewer samples to easier or more confident prompts and more samples to harder or less certain prompts, making inference-time compute inspectable rather than fixed or opaque. We evaluate under a fair-alignment protocol with matched decoding settings and controlled answer selection, and compare against best-of-$N$, compute-aware scaling, and self-certainty-based baselines on question-answering and mathematical reasoning tasks. Across models and datasets, adaptive fuzzy control improves over several standard baselines and remains close to a selector-matched full-budget control while reducing the average number of samples. These findings suggest that interpretable adaptive sampling is a practical direction for more efficient test-time reasoning in large language models.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) has significantly enhanced LLM reasoning, yet often incurs substantial computational overhead due to "overthinking": generating excessively long rationales without commensurate accuracy gains. Existing efficiency methods typically apply uniform compression, which overlooks a critical observation that reasoning complexity is heterogeneous at two distinct granularity: across different problems and within individual reasoning steps. This motivates our principle of Thinking Economically: intelligently allocating computational resources based on intrinsic task and step demands rather than pursuing uniform brevity. We propose Hierarchical Adaptive Budgeter (HAB), a training framework that operationalizes this principle through coarse-to-fine budgeting. At the inter-step level, HAB predicts the optimal reasoning depth for each problem. At the intra-step level, HAB learns step-specific token budgeting signals from PPL-derived step comparisons and an adaptive Pareto optimization objective that captures the local quality-efficiency trade-off, while a Fisher Information-based pruner further provides fine-grained training-time guidance, thereby encouraging the generator to internalize more economical reasoning patterns. Experiments on GSM8K and MATH500 show that HAB not only surpasses standard CoT in accuracy but also reduces token usage, achieving a stronger performance-efficiency trade-off than the compared baselines.