Hierarchical Two-Stage Framework for Environment-Aware Long-Horizon Vessel Trajectory Prediction

Accurate long-term trajectory prediction for maritime vessels is essential for safety and logistical efficiency. While deep learning models, particularly Transformers, have shown promise in processing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, they often struggle with the quadratic computational complexity of self-attention and the loss of accuracy over extended forecasting horizons. This study proposes TempTPI, a novel prediction framework that integrates an Informer-based encoder with a multi-channel temporal encoding mechanism. The Informer architecture leverages a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism to reduce computational overhead and focus on the most significant dependencies, while the temporal encoder utilizes Fourier-like frequency expansions to capture cyclic patterns (hourly, daily, and seasonal) in vessel behavior. We evaluate our model against the state-of-the-art TPTrans architecture using AIS data from Danish waters. Experimental results demonstrate that TempTPI consistently outperforms existing methods across prediction windows of 1 to 5 hours. Notably, at a 5-hour horizon, the proposed model achieves a 55% improvement in Mean Squared Error (MSE), offering a robust solution for long-range maritime situational awareness.

To address the challenges of behavioral multimodality, limited semantic utilization, and long-term error accumulation in vessel trajectory prediction, this paper proposes M3-Former, a multimodal trajectory prediction framework enhanced by large language models (LLMs). The proposed framework incorporates vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long-term trajectory modeling. Specifically, a unified multimodal representation space is constructed, in which static semantic information is encoded by a pre-trained LLM and aligned with dynamic trajectory features through self-attention. To jointly capture global route planning and local motion variations, a dual-granularity Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture is introduced, where sequence-level experts model global navigation trends and token-level experts refine fine-grained maneuvering behaviors. In addition, a Steering-Weighted Cross-Entropy loss is designed to alleviate the long-tail distribution of sparse turning samples and improve prediction accuracy in critical maneuvering scenarios. Experiments on a real-world Danish AIS dataset demonstrate that M\textsuperscript{3}-Former consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across prediction horizons from 1 to 4 hours. In the 4-hour prediction task, the proposed method reduces Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE) by 4.4% and 5.1%, respectively, compared with the strongest baseline. Qualitative and ablation analyses further verify that semantic fusion effectively reduces long-term trajectory drift, while the dual-granularity MoE improves robustness in complex waterways and route-branching scenarios. The proposed framework establishes a semantic-guided hierarchical prediction paradigm, in which high-level navigational intent and local motion dynamics are jointly modeled for robust long-term vessel trajectory forecasting.

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is critical for maritime safety and anomaly detection, yet existing models often struggle with geographic bias and navigational realism. We propose the Continuous Regression Hybrid Transformer (CRHT), a deep learning framework designed to forecast vessel motion using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. To mitigate spatial data imbalance, we introduce an online K-means cluster sampling strategy that ensures diverse exposure to rare maneuvers during training. Our hybrid architecture integrates 1D convolutional layers for local kinematic feature extraction with a multi-head attention mechanism for global temporal context. CRHT demonstrates superior performance in short-term forecasting, achieving the lowest errors at the 1-hour horizon. The results demonstrate that while discrete models provide high navigational stability over long horizons, CRHT offers an optimal balance of precision and maneuver tracking for real-time maritime surveillance.