When Bits Break Recourse: Counterfactual-Faithful Quantization

Quantization is known to hurt below four bits, but nobody can say which of a model's decisions will change at a given bit-width. This matters most where a model acts rather than answers: a compressed agent stops calling its tools and, one bit lower, loses roughly half its safety refusals, while benchmark scores barely move. Prior work assumes the added noise has a roughly fixed size, which would make confident decisions safe. We measure the decision instead: the margin, the picked option's score minus its best alternative's, tracked before and after quantization across 16 models from 8 families under round-to-nearest, seven under AWQ, two under GPTQ and one under GGUF, at 8 down to 2 bits. The damage is proportional, not fixed in size: the margin is multiplied by a factor that collapses with bit-width (median 0.86 at 4 bits, 0.33 at 3, 0.00 at 2), which we call margin shrinkage. Contraction removes the protection a large margin affords; the model's own biases pick the direction: at 3 bits the decision to call a tool collapses toward inaction while the choice of which tool is untouched. No additive account, including one whose noise grows with the margin, wins a single damaged whether-to-call or safety cell (378 of 378). Given a condition's own constants the relation predicts held-out flip rates to a median 1.7 points, calibrated per decision (error 0.004 over 161,744 predictions), no flip used in the fit. Borrowed constants are wrong by 18-33 points at 3 bits, so the paired margin set has to be measured per model and bit-width: it locates breaking decisions without replacing measurement. At 4 bits the measurement is anchored to behaviour (the most likely token over the whole vocabulary is one of the item's two options in 85% of tool items); we treat the 2-bit floor as where the instrument stops measuring. No label-free repair we tested recovers more than one more bit does.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) converts a trained full-precision model into low-bit weights without task-level retraining, while quantization-aware training (QAT) incorporates quantization into the training loop. Although PTQ is efficient and often accurate at moderate bitwidths, it can fail sharply at aggressive bitwidths; QAT is more expensive but can often recover the lost accuracy. We propose a unified geometric framework that explains both PTQ failure and QAT recovery. We model full-precision training as following a low-loss \emph{river} inside a wider \emph{valley}: a normal neighborhood of the river forms a nearly flat \emph{basin}, while leaving this basin incurs a sharp loss increase. When the quantization grid is comparable to the basin width, local PTQ objectives, including rounding and Hessian-based second-order reconstruction, can select a high-loss deployed quantized point outside the basin even when nearby low-loss quantized points exist. In this regime, straight-through-estimator-based QAT has a useful bias: it evaluates gradients at the deployed quantized weights while updating latent full-precision weights, causing the gradient to sense the valley wall and acquire an inward component that steers subsequent quantized iterates back into the basin. We formalize this mechanism through a local landscape model, construct a geometric PTQ failure mode, and prove finite-time QAT recovery under local quantizer-compatibility assumptions. Experiments across vision and language models under multiple neural-network quantization schemes corroborate the predicted basin-crossing failure of PTQ and the corresponding recovery mechanism of QAT.

We show that a quantized model that keeps its classification accuracy still changes $14$ to $46\%$ of its top-1 retrieval results, and that aggregate ranking metrics reveal only part of this damage. We tie this failure to the gap between the two highest scores and use that gap to decide when a quantized answer can be trusted and where additional precision should be spent. We show that the top-1 result is guaranteed to survive quantization only when this gap exceeds twice the largest rounding error. In classification, scores are the logits, and the loss function pushes the correct class away from other classes, encouraging this gap. In retrieval, scores are query-document scores, and nothing separates the top-1 item from the second. This gap can be measured without labels. Before deployment, it predicts which models will break under quantization, and at deployment time it tells, per input, whether the quantized answer still matches the full-precision answer. Most classification inputs have a gap wide enough to trust the quantized answer, but few retrieval queries do. That gap motivates a different fix in each task. In retrieval, spending extra bit-width on the layers whose quantization moves the gap most recovers up to three-quarters of an extra bit's benefit for half its cost. In classification, routing the few low-gap inputs to full precision recovers most of the lost accuracy at a fraction of the cost.