Agentic Chunking and Bayesian De-chunking of AI Generated Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Model of the Thucydides Trap

We show how users can create and manipulate causal virtual worlds with large-language-model (LLM) and large-video-model agents. The approach uses feedback fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) both to model the granular causal structure of the virtual world and to guide its causal evolution. The local causal rules are partial or fuzzy while the FCM's feedback structure produces global equilibria that define causal scenarios. A sequence of \emph{dynamical} meta-rules of the form ``If $\mathcal{A}$ then $\mathcal{B}$" define the causal scenes of the virtual-world video. The if-part causal pattern $\mathcal{A}$ perturbs the FCM's virtual world at the user's or agent's discretion. The FCM's transient feedback dynamics define the meta-rule's causal arrow of implication. The then-part $\mathcal{B}$ is the resulting equilibrium attractor such as a FCM limit cycle or fixed point. Our algorithm extracts these meta-rules from the FCM and guides the LLM agent to write a script based on the FCM meta-rule sequence. The large video generator converts the meta-rule into a video scene in accord with the flow of the dynamics. We applied the agent-based technique to a simple FCM that describes an undersea world of dolphins and sharks. Google's Gemini 3.1 generated the script and Google's Veo 3.1 generated the dolphin-shark video. The approach is general and can scale by mixing larger FCMs and AI agents to produce more immersive virtual worlds.

This article is about the development of a fuzzy cognitive map using a local large language model. In the light of recent advances it is evident that large language models, and even local large language models are capable of extracting quantities from textual data. In other words, a local LLM like Qwen2.5-32B, or probably larger, can accept entities as prompt input and determine relevant quantitative data as the model output. In turn, this output can be utilized for the construction of a data driven fuzzy cognitive map. Hence, this implementation is achieved and then the model is thoroughly tested; Qwen2.5-32B is used and the data is extracted from hotel reviews from TripAdvisor. Furthermore, the extracted documents pass through the model unfiltered and then a fuzzy cognitive map is trained and evaluated. A case is made about Greek reviews where a star topology FCM is formed that indicates the preferences of the reviewers. Finally, external validation is performed to establish whether the fuzzy cognitive map can correlate the star rating of the review -an outcome outside the model's inference scope -with its predicted satisfaction.

Understanding the causal structure of a language model's thought process is a problem of significant importance for both transparency and safety. In this work, we take a local approach toward this goal by analyzing the causal relationships among individual components, termed units, of a given, specific chain-of-thought trace. We construct a structural causal model on these units and relate each unit to the log probability of generating (subsequent) output units. Our algorithm, termed AttriCoT, is a black-box method that performs attribution by estimating importance parameters in the structural causal model using $O(U)$ forward passes through the model, where $U$ is the number of units. Evaluation of perturbation curves across 5 datasets and 4 reasoning models shows that AttriCoT produces attributions that are more faithful to the model's behavior than alternative methods. The attribution results also reveal notable differences in thought structure between models and domains.