We automatically generate feedback causal fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) from text by teaching large-language-model agents to break the text into overlapping chunks of text. Convex mixing of these chunk FCMs gives a representative cyclic FCM knowledge graph. The text chunks can have different levels of overlap. The chunk FCMs still mix to form a new FCM causal knowledge graph. The mixing technique scales because it uses light computation with sparse causal chunk matrices. The mixing structure allows an operator-level type of Bayesian inference that produces "de-chunked" or posterior-like FCMs from the mixed FCM. These de-chunked FCMs are useful in their own right and allow further iterations of Bayesian updating. We demonstrate these mixing techniques on the essay text of Allison's "Thucydides Trap" model of conflict between a dominant power such as the United States and a rising power such as China. The FCM dynamical systems predict outcomes as they equilibrate to fixed-point or limit-cycle attractors. Seven out of 8 FCM knowledge graphs predicted a type of war when we stimulated them by turning on and keeping on the concept node that stands for the rising power's ambition and entitlement. Gemini 3.1 LLMs served as the chunking AI agents.
We show how users can create and manipulate causal virtual worlds with large-language-model (LLM) and large-video-model agents. The approach uses feedback fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) both to model the granular causal structure of the virtual world and to guide its causal evolution. The local causal rules are partial or fuzzy while the FCM's feedback structure produces global equilibria that define causal scenarios. A sequence of \emph{dynamical} meta-rules of the form ``If A then B" define the causal scenes of the virtual-world video. The if-part causal pattern A perturbs the FCM's virtual world at the user's or agent's discretion. The FCM's transient feedback dynamics define the meta-rule's causal arrow of implication. The then-part B is the resulting equilibrium attractor such as a FCM limit cycle or fixed point. Our algorithm extracts these meta-rules from the FCM and guides the LLM agent to write a script based on the FCM meta-rule sequence. The large video generator converts the meta-rule into a video scene in accord with the flow of the dynamics. We applied the agent-based technique to a simple FCM that describes an undersea world of dolphins and sharks. Google's Gemini 3.1 generated the script and Google's Veo 3.1 generated the dolphin-shark video. The approach is general and can scale by mixing larger FCMs and AI agents to produce more immersive virtual worlds.
Understanding the causal structure of a language model's thought process is a problem of significant importance for both transparency and safety. In this work, we take a local approach toward this goal by analyzing the causal relationships among individual components, termed units, of a given, specific chain-of-thought trace. We construct a structural causal model on these units and relate each unit to the log probability of generating (subsequent) output units. Our algorithm, termed AttriCoT, is a black-box method that performs attribution by estimating importance parameters in the structural causal model using O(U) forward passes through the model, where U is the number of units. Evaluation of perturbation curves across 5 datasets and 4 reasoning models shows that AttriCoT produces attributions that are more faithful to the model's behavior than alternative methods. The attribution results also reveal notable differences in thought structure between models and domains.
Theory of mind (ToM), the capacity to ascribe mental states to others and use those ascriptions for prediction and inference, is widely assumed to be essential for effective human-machine integration. Existing AI-ToM models address \emph{how} to mentalize, but leave the question of when largely unaddressed. The central question is: under what situational and agent-level conditions is ToM engagement causally warranted in conflict? This paper presents a structural causal model formalized as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), treating ToM as a mechanism activated by situational and agent-level conditions rather than as an always-on capacity. The model specifies four exogenous variables capturing situational and agent-level conditions, five endogenous mediators, and a mechanistic ToM node producing engagement states through three distinct causal pathways: a tractability pathway, a reasoning-depth pathway, and an enabling-cause pathway. The primary outcome is epistemic accuracy, which decouples social reasoning from behavioral policy and generalizes across social phenomena beyond conflict. The framework gives AI systems a principled, resource-rational decision procedure for mentalizing, with implications for efficiency, trust, and the development of robust artificial social intelligence. Simulation validation, empirical human-machine teaming studies, and ethical considerations arising from conflict-optimized mentalizing are discussed.