From Prompts to Pavement Through Time: Temporal Grounding in Agentic Scene-to-Plan Reasoning

High-level planning for autonomous driving is a knowledge-intensive engineering decision task that requires accurate scene understanding, timely inference, and internally consistent action selection. Vision-language models (VLMs) can make intermediate reasoning explicit, but their use in deployed planners is constrained by costly structured supervision, unnecessary reasoning in routine scenes, and possible inconsistencies between generated rationales and driving actions. We present a cognitive dual-process planning framework that represents planning-relevant scene knowledge in a machine-parsable structured chain-of-thought (S-CoT) schema. An automated data engine integrates perception foundation models, critical-path filtering, and an expert VLM to generate S-CoT supervision without manual annotation of individual rationales. A lightweight visual Arbiter estimates scene complexity from multilevel vision-encoder features before language decoding and routes each input to either fast meta-action prediction or slow structured reasoning. For slow-path outputs, a deterministic rule-based validator checks whether the parsed S-CoT fields are consistent with the final meta-action and provides verifiable rewards for Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). In a 195-scene manual audit, the generated annotations achieve 91.8% CoT accuracy and a 98.5% Logical Consistency Score (LCS). On 574 manually verified NAVSIM test samples, the planner achieves 80.14% planning accuracy and 97.20% LCS while reducing average latency by 17.39% relative to applying slow reasoning to every scene. Evaluation on external long-tail subsets further identifies conditions under which routing and planning performance degrade. Together, these results show how explicit scene knowledge can be operationalized through adaptive reasoning and rule-based verification to support high-level VLM planning decisions.

Current benchmarks for embodied vision-language planning often favor linguistic next-token prediction over physically grounded next-state reasoning. This rewards models that mimic statistical language priors rather than track causal dependencies, reducing physical planning to shallow sequence modeling. We argue that reliable physical autonomy requires a shift from linguistically grounded token prediction toward physically grounded causal reasoning. To this end, we introduce Causal-Plan-Bench, a high-fidelity diagnostic suite curated through multi-stage verification to evaluate embodied planning across four causal dimensions. We also construct Causal-Plan-1M, a million-scale corpus of explicit reasoning traces produced by a four-stage annotation pipeline over egocentric videos. Extensive evaluation shows that leading models still struggle to demonstrate genuine physical agency, with Gemini 3 Pro reaching only 38.18 on our benchmark. In contrast, our training recipe enables Causal Planner, built on Qwen3-VL-8B, to internalize physical logic for more accurate next-state estimation. The model achieves strong in-domain performance and cross-benchmark generalization, and reveals a Causal Scaling Law: scaling causal training data to one million instances yields a 36.3% relative gain, from 33.22 to 45.28. Overall, our work provides a concrete step toward turning agents from superficial token predictors into physically grounded causal reasoners.

Current end-to-end autonomous driving systems are fundamentally limited by a mismatch between temporal causal reasoning and global trajectory consistency. Autoregressive (AR) models capture interaction-aware temporal dependencies via causal factorization, but their step-wise decoding leads to error accumulation and suboptimal global structure. In contrast, diffusion models optimize trajectories globally but lack explicit causal constraints, making them unreliable in interactive and safety-critical scenarios. This dichotomy reveals a deeper issue: existing methods treat causal modeling and global optimization as separate paradigms, without a principled way to unify them within a single trajectory distribution. To address this, we propose ChainFlow-VLA, which unifies causal generation and global refinement within a unified probabilistic framework. We formulate planning as a mixture over AR-induced modes and learn Vision-Language Model (VLM)-conditioned residual distributions over these modes. An autoregressive generator (Chain) produces a discrete set of causal trajectory modes, followed by a diffusion-based refiner (Flow) that leverages VLM hidden states as semantic priors to perform mode-conditioned correction in residual space while preserving causal structure. This straightforward conditioning seamlessly injects high-level scene understanding into fine-grained trajectory adjustments. Experiments demonstrate that ChainFlow-VLA achieves robust planning in ambiguous and long-tail scenarios, achieving a state-of-the-art score of 94.85 on the NAVSIM v1 leaderboard, matching human-level performance (94.8). Code will be available at https://github.com/AFARI-Research/ChainFlow-VLA.