This work explores a dynamics-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) as a data-driven surrogate for computationally intensive Earth system simulations. Focusing on multivariate time series describing global ocean transport, we demonstrate the surrogate's ability to forecast tip events across thousands of time steps. The data involve up to 21 non-stationary time series in addition to static covariates describing free parameters and initial conditions. Modifications to the architecture and objective function yield a surrogate that anticipates the timing of Atlantic and Pacific collapses to high fidelity and captures the stochastic uncertainty in transition timing across ensemble predictions. The learned surrogate achieves a 465x computational speedup over the numerical simulator while maintaining differentiability with respect to parameters and initial conditions.
Accurate Earth system prediction requires state inference from incomplete observations, but conventional two-stage data assimilation (DA) is computationally prohibitive because repeated PDE-based ensemble forecasts, observation updates, and intermediate data movement limit ensemble size at high resolution. We introduce STORM, a one-stage generative AI framework that reformulates DA as diffusion-based Bayesian posterior sampling, replacing online PDE ensemble forecasts with scalable AI inference. It further combines a spatiotemporal transformer with a global-attention algorithm that reduces complexity from quadratic to linear through scalable gradient propagation, enabling high-resolution, long-context Earth modeling. STORM scales to 74,400 GPUs on Frontier with 96--99% strong-scaling efficiency and up to 6 ExaFLOPs sustained BF16 throughput, while enabling 32,768-member ensembles for uncertainty quantification in 34 seconds on 4,096 GPUs. It scales to 20 billion spatiotemporal tokens and 177,000 temporal frames. Hurricane tracking and long-term climate reanalysis demonstrate improved accuracy, including benefits from longer temporal context and recovery of temperature extremes missed by forecast-only predictions.
Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise. For such systems, deterministic neural surrogates fail to capture statistical measures and forecast uncertainty. We introduce TRIE, an evaluation framework for stochastic PDE surrogates that asks whether models reproduce invariant measures, provide trustworthy predictive uncertainty, and scale to efficient probabilistic generation. We demonstrate TRIE on two stationary chaotic spatially extended SPDEs, stochastic Kuramoto--Sivashinsky and stochastic Kolmogorov flow, across 11 parameter values. Our evaluation shows that standard pointwise-trained neural surrogates can produce plausible short rollouts while failing to match long-time statistical structure. Approximate uncertainty methods such as Monte Carlo dropout and heteroscedastic Gaussian likelihoods produce stochastic forecasts, but are often miscalibrated and overconfident under temporal and spatial uncertainty diagnostics. Across these criteria, generative models provide the most consistent performance, accurately capturing invariant measure statistics and achieving the lowest CRPS in all reported probabilistic settings. Finally, we show that latent generative models with automatic dimension discovery retain much of this statistical fidelity while reducing Kolmogorov inference time by roughly 12×. We release our code and data at https://github.com/scailab/TRIE-SPDE-Bench to support reproducible evaluation of stochastic PDE forecasting models.
Bharat Srikishan, Javier E. Santos, Nikhil Muralidhar +1
Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis--GCM gap.