Robust Personalized Recommendation under Hidden Confounding in MNAR
Authors: Zongyu Li, Wanting Su, Tianyu Xia
Organizations: Guangdong University of Technology · Guangzhou, China · Chinese Academy of Sciences · Shanghai, China · Peking University · Beijing, China
Recommender systems often rely on observational user--item interaction data, which is prone to selection bias due to users' selective interactions with items. Inverse propensity weighting and doubly robust estimators effectively mitigate selection bias under observed confounding, but are unreliable in the presence of hidden confounders. Existing approaches relying on randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or global sensitivity bounds are constrained in practice: RCTs demand costly experimental data, while global sensitivity bounds presume a uniformly bounded effect of unmeasured confounders on propensities through sensitivity analysis, thereby neglecting heterogeneity across user--item interactions. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel framework, which estimates user--item level sensitivity bounds, thereby substantially relaxing the homogeneity assumption inherent in global sensitivity bounds named Personalized Unobserved-Confounding-aware Interaction Deconfounder (PUID). To ensure both robustness and predictive accuracy, we further develop an adversarial optimization strategy and propose a benchmark-guided variant (BPUID) that incorporates pre-trained models as stabilizing references. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms global methods under hidden confounding, without requiring RCT data.
Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network (CHAUN) and Robust Adversarial Inverse Propensity Score (RA-IPS) method to address these limitations. CHAUN employs shared feature embeddings and cross-head attention mechanisms to dynamically integrate treatment-specific and control-specific representations, enhancing inter-group correlation modeling. Theoretically, we prove that access to the true propensity scores ensures ITE identifiability even with unobserved confounders. For practical scenarios lacking true propensity scores, RA-IPS adversarially optimizes propensity weights within constrained uncertainty sets to mitigate bias from unobserved variables. Experiments on public datasets (CRITEO-UPLIFT, LAZADA) and a production e-commerce dataset demonstrate CHAUN's superiority over state-of-the-art uplift models, achieving relative improvements of up to 25.6% in QINI scores. RA-IPS further enhances robustness, outperforming standard IPS by 5.4% under unobserved confounding. The results validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods in real-world causal inference tasks.
Modern recommender systems are typically based on deep learning (DL) models, where a dense encoder learns representations of users and items. As a result, these systems often suffer from the black-box nature and computational complexity of the underlying models, making it difficult to systematically enhance their recommendation capabilities. To address this problem, we propose Probabilistic Residual Learning (PRL), a causal Bayesian recommendation model that models the residual between ground-truth and base predictions, enabling targeted refinement of existing systems. Specifically, PRL (1) probabilistically groups users for localized residual modeling, (2) models domain-level confounders that influence user and item representations, and (3) aggregates cluster-specific residual predictions over the confounders using do-calculus. Experiments demonstrate that our plug-and-play PRL is compatible with various base deep learning recommender systems, improving their performance while automatically discovering meaningful user clusters.
Recommender systems trained on user interaction data are susceptible to behavioral intensity imbalance--a systematic distortion arising from heterogeneous engagement patterns across users. This imbalance skews feedback signals such that observed interactions no longer faithfully reflect true preferences, causing models to disproportionately amplify signals from highly active users while underrepresenting others, which ultimately degrades recommendation quality and robustness at scale. To address this issue, we propose a nonparametric contrastive percentile approximation framework, PEARL, that models relative preference signals instead of absolute engagement magnitudes. Building upon relative advantage debiasing, PEARL leverages real contrastive interaction samples to approximate percentile relationships directly, without relying on auxiliary distribution estimation models. We provide theoretical justification demonstrating that such pairwise comparisons yield unbiased estimates of percentile-based preference signals. For broader applicability, we introduce a prediction-based bootstrapping mechanism for percentile smoothing to handle sparse and discrete feedback, alongside a generalized value-weighted formulation and a co-training strategy to enhance both modeling flexibility and representation learning. Extensive offline experiments demonstrate that PEARL effectively mitigates behavioral bias and consistently improves recommendation performance across multiple ranking targets. Deployed in a production livestream platform with a combined user base of billions, online A/B testing confirms substantial real-world gains: +2.10% Watch Duration, +0.80% Consumption Amount, +1.49% Interaction Rate, and -6.91% Report Rate.