Uncertainty-aware classification and triage of structural heart disease using electrocardiography and echocardiography metrics
Authors: Mitchel J. Colebank
Organizations: Department of Mathematics, University of South Carolina,, Columbia, 29208, South Carolina, USA
Abstract
Machine learning methods provide a methodological innovation that can help screen for cardiovascular disease through noninvasive and readily available measurement modalities. Recent investments in using electrocardiogram (ECG) data to screen for structural heart disease (SHD) are one example, where ECGs provide a low-cost, available modality for screening. This has led to the EchoNext dataset, a paired ECG-echocardiogram data repository for testing new methods of SHD detection. However, relatively few studies have investigated how more probabilistic classification through Bayesian inference may improve uncertainty quantification in this setting. Moreover, few studies have considered how triage systems can be developed to alleviate healthcare bottlenecks, such as the review of data from underserved, rural clinics by expert sonographers for SHD assessment. In this study, we leverage existing ECG-echocardiogram data to compare frequentist and Bayesian neural network classifiers. We show that the Bayesian approach is comparable or better than frequentist methods in SHD classification, and that they have a more robust uncertainty quantification attached to them. We provide an example of how this uncertainty-aware classification scheme can be used for screening SHD, providing a proof-of-concept for how machine learning can help with triage in getting individuals expert sonographer input when SHD is highly likely or measurements are highly uncertain.
Transthoracic echocardiography is the reference standard for confirming structural heart disease (SHD), but first-line screening is limited by cost, workflow burden, and specialist availability. We evaluated whether open pretrained electrocardiogram (ECG) foundation models can support echo-confirmed multi-label SHD detection using the public EchoNext Mini-Model benchmark. Six echocardiography-derived abnormalities were targeted: reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, increased left ventricular wall thickness, aortic stenosis, mitral regurgitation, tricuspid regurgitation, and right ventricular systolic dysfunction. Under a common pipeline, we compared engineered ECG features with gradient boosting, end-to-end waveform learning from scratch, and transfer from open ECG foundation models. We then applied in-domain self-supervised adaptation of an ECG foundation model (ECG-FM) on EchoNext waveforms followed by selective supervised fine-tuning, and evaluated trade-offs between discrimination and adaptation cost. Adapted ECG-FM models achieved the best overall performance: peak macro-AUROC 0.8509 and macro-AUPRC 0.4297, while a parameter-efficient operating point preserved AUROC (0.8501) and attained the highest fixed-threshold macro-F1 0.3691. Late fusion with covariates did not improve threshold-independent discrimination, and evaluated LoRA, alternative backbones, and mixture-of-foundations strategies did not surpass the best adapted single-backbone models. These results indicate that for ECG-based case finding and echocardiography triage, combining target-domain self-supervised adaptation with selective supervised updating of a pretrained ECG backbone is the most effective transfer strategy.
Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) assessment depends on echocardiography, limiting access in primary care and resource-constrained settings. We developed a multimodal machine-learning framework that combines engineered 12-lead ECG timeseries features with structured EHR variables to classify LVEF into four clinically used strata: normal (>50%), mildly reduced (40-50%), moderately reduced (30-40%), and severely reduced (<30%). To support model explainability, we identified the most influential ECG and EHR features via SHAP attributions. Using retrospective data from Hartford HealthCare, we trained XGBoost models on 36,784 ECG-echocardiogram pairs from 30,952 outpatients and evaluated temporal generalizability on 19,966 ECGs from a subsequent period. The multimodal model achieved one-vs-rest AUROCs of 0.95 (severe), 0.92 (moderate), 0.82 (mild), and 0.91 (normal), outperforming ECG-only and EHR-only baselines, and maintained performance under temporal validation. This work supports ECG-based, multimodal LVEF stratification as a practical screening and triage aid to prioritize confirmatory imaging where resources are limited.
Electrocardiogram (ECG) diagnosis in clinical practice relies on structured reasoning over multiple hierarchical aspects, including cardiac rhythm, conduction properties, waveform morphology, and overall diagnostic impression. However, most existing approaches predict labels directly from ECG signals without explicit clinical reasoning, resulting in opaque decisions that lack clinical alignment. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioThink, a physician-inspired multimodal large language model (MLLM) framework that explicitly models the diagnostic reasoning process through human-interpretable intermediate stages (rhythm, conduction, morphology, and impression) to derive final classification results. Furthermore, we introduce Structured Set Policy Optimization (SSPO) to jointly optimize adherence to this structured reasoning format and the accuracy of variable-size diagnostic sets, without requiring manually annotated reasoning traces. Extensive experiments on diverse ECG benchmarks demonstrate the significant superiority of our approach in diagnostic accuracy, while simultaneously providing interpretable clinical reasoning. Notably, reasoning quality evaluations confirm that SSPO substantially enhances the clinical validity of the generated rationales. These findings reveal that moving beyond direct label prediction toward structured reasoning offers a more clinically aligned direction for future ECG modeling.