The Attribution Contract: Feature Attribution for Generative Language Models

The generative nature of Large Language Models (LLMs) is reflected in the conditional probabilities they compute to sample each response token given the previous tokens. These probabilities encode the distributional structure that the model learns in training and exploits in inference. In this work, we use these probabilities to situate LLMs within the mathematical theory of stochastic processes. We use this framework to design a model-agnostic probabilistic token attribution measure, using Bayes rule to invert the next-token log-probabilities so as to capture the models internal representation of the distribution over token sequences. The representation is independent of the models computational structure. This representation yields the conditional probability of the response given the prompt, and of the response given the prompt with a token marginalized away. Our attribution score is the log of the ratio of these probabilities. We further compute the entropies of a single prompts token distributions, conditioned on the remaining context. The interplay between entropy and attribution score sheds light on LLM behavior. We evaluate 8 models across 7 prompts and investigate anomalies, token sensitivity, response stability, model stability, and training convergence, thereby improving interpretability and guiding users to focus on uncertain or unstable parts of the generation.

Retrieval-augmented generation promises to ground language model outputs in external evidence, yet the field has no reliable way to verify whether retrieved context actually governs generation -- a prerequisite for any high-stakes deployment. The standard assumption, that context-consistent output implies context-governed output, breaks when the retrieved document overlaps with the model's pretraining data: the model can produce faithful-looking text entirely from parametric memory, and both pathways yield indistinguishable output. We name this failure the attribution blind spot and introduce Computational Reality Monitoring (CRM) to address it. CRM operationalizes a principle adapted from cognitive science's reality monitoring framework: comparing internal representations with and without context reveals membership-conditioned representational divergence that output-level monitors systematically miss. CRM does not certify which source an individual generation used; it detects whether pretraining exposure leaves a measurable internal trajectory signature, establishing a necessary substrate for source attribution. Across nine model variants spanning three families, this divergence concentrates in architecture-specific layer patterns, receives converging support from block-level noise intervention, and generalizes across tasks and datasets while collapsing on domain-confounded benchmarks. The attribution blind spot is measurable and partially addressable: internal representations carry a diagnostic signal invisible at the output level, establishing a foundation for systems whose internal awareness of evidence provenance governs their external behavior.

Natural-language explanations are often treated as a unified interface for understanding model behavior, but different explanation sources may support simulation in different ways. This paper compares two families of explanations for question answering models: verbalized feature attributions and self-generated rationales. We evaluate them under a shared counterfactual simulation setting, using an LLM judge as predictor and measuring whether it can better predict a model's answers to follow-up questions when given its explanation. Across multiple instruction-tuned models, we analyze how explanation source, verbalization strategy, and feature granularity affect the simulatability of explanations. Our results show that explanation format and granularity affect simulatability: attribution-based explanations and self-generated rationales differ in how much they improve counterfactual prediction, with effects that vary across models and formats.