Infra-Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Agents Outperform Classical RL For Worst-Case Robustness
Authors: Manish Aryal, Faiyaz Azam, Agnivo Banerjee, Syed Mahir Ahamed, Sai Sidhanth Manoharan Jayanthi, Allegra Laro, Clément Legentilhomme, Andrew Lin, +6 more
Organizations: Purdue University · Carnegie Mellon University · WorldQuant University · Union College · UC Berkeley · Independent · Aix-Marseille University · MIT · University of Zurich · University of British Columbia · University of Stuttgart · University of Buenos Aires · California State University, Fresno · University of Chicago
Classical reinforcement learning assumes the agent interacts with a fixed environment whose behavior does not depend on the agent's policy. This assumption breaks down in non-realizable settings where other actors might anticipate the agent's behavior, including environments crucial to AI safety, where the agent interacts with predictors, humans, other AI agents, and institutions. In such settings, the agent's model class fails to capture the world in which it operates. Under such misspecification, classical Bayesian methods can produce confidently wrong posteriors, unreliable decisions, and unbounded regret, as realizability fails to obtain. Infra-Bayesianism is a decision-theoretic framework that addresses these failures by distinguishing ordinary probabilistic uncertainty, where priors can be reasonably chosen, from Knightian uncertainty, where no grounds exist for the construction of such a prior. It does so by evaluating actions on their worst-case outcomes, rather than from posterior expectations or weighted averaging. We present the first proof-of-concept implementation of an infra-Bayesian reinforcement learning architecture for finite-outcome stateless decision problems. Our agent maintains a set of imprecise hypotheses, updates them using infra-Bayesian conditioning, and selects actions by maximizing worst-case expected value. We apply this implementation of the infra-Bayesian maximin decision process to an environment with Knightian uncertainty, and demonstrate a lower worst-case regret as compared to classical reinforcement learning agents. We also investigate Newcomb's problem and show that the infra-Bayesian agent picks the optimal strategy, outperforming classical decision theory agents. Our results provide a step towards reinforcement learning agents that remain robust under model misspecification and policy-dependent uncertainty.
We study offline inference for the optimal value in reinforcement learning under finite state and action spaces. Two new nuisances are derived as fixed points of a self-induced Bellman equation, in which we approximate the maximum Bellman operator by its softmax correspondence. We propose a debiased estimator through the Neyman orthogonality and establish its asymptotic normality under diverging horizons even when the behavior policy changes with time, as long as the nuisances have the statistical rates that can be achieved by many machine learning methods. We provide a concrete estimating procedure for these nuisances and show they can lead to valid inference. Synthetic experiments validate the numerical performance of our inference method, and we implement it in real-life decision-making problems, including bike repositioning and AI agentic tool use.
Large language model (LLM)-based agents often make suboptimal tool-use decisions, including unsupported tool invocation and hallucinated direct responses, which may accumulate errors throughout multi-step interactions. Existing approaches mainly improve these behaviors through inference-time correction or coarse-grained reward signals based on decision outcomes and structured checklists, leaving the uncertainty characteristics of agent decisions underexplored. We observe that decision-oriented reinforcement learning tends to weaken the uncertainty separation between correct and incorrect actions, resulting in overconfident mistakes and weaker exploration signals. Therefore, we propose TRUST, which incorporates uncertainty quantification into reward design as a repulsive force for maintaining uncertainty separation, and labels lightweight key-turn annotations for unified post-training of multi-turn trajectories. Experimental results across diverse tool-use benchmarks show that TRUST consistently enhances both decision quality and agent performance while maintaining more reliable uncertainty estimates during optimization.
To improve the real-world applicability of reinforcement learning (RL), the field of adversarially robust RL studies how to train agents under adversarial environment perturbations. In this setting, a protagonist agent optimizes a policy under environmental perturbations from an adversary, resulting in a zero-sum Markov game. When adversarially robust RL is combined with model-based RL, the adversary can target a learned transition model instead of the training environment. Extending this idea, this work introduces post-hoc robustification of deep RL agents at inference time. By using the learned model in combination with a trained nominal policy, our approach performs a robust policy improvement step. The goal is to improve robustness without any additional training of neural networks. Specifically, we utilize model-predictive control under adversarial rollouts, which are approximated via projected gradient descent within a bounded uncertainty set. Furthermore, these offline rollouts are performed while considering and mitigating out-of-distribution issues. The proposed methodology is validated by demonstrating significant improvements in robustness when the algorithm is evaluated in perturbed Gymnasium MuJoCo environments, while considering the computational limitations of the post-hoc inference setting.