Organizations: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Yale University
Abstract
We propose to improve in-context learning (ICL) by optimizing the continuous embeddings of a fixed few-shot prompt at test time. The key observation is that the log-probabilities a model assigns to its demonstrated outputs\unicodex2013available from a single forward pass without generating any tokens\unicodex2013provide a meaningful signal for how well the model has inferred the task from its demonstrations. We formalize this signal as a bounded, self-supervised confidence proxy and maximize it via zeroth-order optimization over the prompt embeddings, yielding a test-time calibration procedure. The approach requires no finetuning, no token generation, no predefined label set, and no external data, making it equally applicable to both classification and free-form generation tasks. Across a comprehensive suite of ICL tasks, the proposed calibration consistently matches or improves upon the base model and outperforms classification-specific baselines on most tasks. The statistically significant correlation between proxy improvement and downstream accuracy gain confirms that the proposed proxy encodes a reliable optimization signal for in-context learning.
In-context learning (ICL) is an emerging paradigm that employs the semantic information inherent in large language models (LLMs) for generating answers to user queries. While the remarkable performance of ICL has been widely known, a general modeling and a rigorous theoretical analysis of this paradigm are still lacking. This work presents a probabilistic model for ICL and derives the performance of ICL for both general parametric distributions and exponential families. Based on the derived results, the work explains the impact of multiple factors such as the number of demonstrations, the sensitivity of the probabilistic model to the variation of its parameters, as well as the similarity between the demonstrations and the query on the performance of ICL.
While many-shot ICL achieves remarkable performance, prior studies of its scaling behavior have mainly focused on non-reasoning tasks. In this work, we study many-shot ICL on reasoning tasks, with a particular focus on many-shot chain-of-thought in-context learning (CoT-ICL). Analyzing across non-reasoning and reasoning tasks and across non-reasoning and reasoning-oriented LLMs, we identify several distinctive properties of many-shot CoT-ICL. We further interpret these findings by viewing many-shot CoT-ICL as in-context test-time learning rather than scaled pattern matching, and suggest two principles: (i) demonstrations should be easy for the target model to understand, and (ii) they should be ordered to support a smooth conceptual progression. Guided by the principle, we propose Curvilinear Demonstration Selection (CDS), a simple ordering method that yields up to a 5.42 percentage-point gain on a math task with 64 demonstrations. Overall, our results reframe the long context window from a retrieval buffer into a structured curriculum for in-context test-time learning.
In-context learning (ICL) derives its power from enabling Large Language Models to adapt to new tasks via prompt-based reasoning alone, entirely bypassing the need for parameter updates. Existing theories primarily study ICL in single-task settings, while real-world prompts often contain sequences of heterogeneous tasks, leaving a gap in understanding whether Large Language Models implicitly perform continual learning during inference. To bridge this gap, we propose the first theoretical framework for in-context continual learning, modeling how a pretrained Transformer processes multiple sequential tasks within a single prompt through shared attention mechanisms. Focusing on linear and masked linear self-attention, we derive error expressions for model predictions under sequential task prompts and analyze their generalization and forgetting behavior. Our results reveal that standard attention mechanisms inevitably induce intertask interference by uniformly or causally aggregating historical contexts, leading to systematic bias. We further provide a bias-variance-interference decomposition of prediction error, characterizing when historical in-context information yields positive transfer or provable negative transfer. This analysis exposes fundamental limits of attention-based continual inference and offers theoretical explanations for order sensitivity and performance degradation in long prompts.