CRONOS: Benchmarking Counterfactual Physical Consistency in Video Models
Authors: León Begiristain, Olaf Dünkel, Adam Kortylewski
Organizations: University of Freiburg · Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany · Max Planck Institute for Informatics · Saarland Informatics Campus, Germany · CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security · Saarbrücken, Germany
Abstract
Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.
Video generation models are increasingly used as world simulators for tasks like driving and robotic manipulation. What matters in these settings is not whether a single video looks right, but whether the model's output changes when its input changes. We test this by giving a model two prompts describing the same scene with one physical detail varied, and checking whether the two videos diverge the way physics predicts. The wording difference between the prompts is small by design, since only one variable is changed, but the correct physical difference is not. A model that misses this can still produce two videos that each look plausible individually, and existing benchmarks score videos one at a time and cannot detect this failure. We introduce What-If World, 319 such prompt pairs built on real frames from nuScenes and DROID, organized by a taxonomy of six physical variables shared across driving and manipulation. Each pair is scored with APEO, a four-part rubric checking whether each video follows its prompt (Adherence), is physically consistent (Physics), preserves the shared scene (Environment), and ends in the correct difference (Outcome). Across nine state-of-the-art models, no system exceeds 52% on the paired score, and open-source models cluster near 28%. Every model tested fails on a large fraction of causal interventions, indicating substantial room before these models can reliably support action-conditioned simulation or model-based planning. Where models do score well, performance appears to track the visual prominence of the intervention rather than the tractability of its underlying physics. Some visually subtle interventions score as low as 14.2%, while visually pronounced ones reach 40.4%.
We introduce reference-free measures for evaluating the physical consistency of generated videos, combining relative and absolute approaches to assess fidelity. Although tools like WorldGym or WorldEval enable robotic simulation via video generation, physical fidelity gaps often prevent these environments from accurately reproducing real-world task success rates of VLA models. Unlike existing evaluation methods, which require costly human voting (Elo) or unavailable ground-truth references (FVD), our approach utilizes DROID-SLAM and SEA-RAFT to quantify physical inconsistencies, motivated by WorldScore. Videos filtered using our relative consistency assessment show an improvement in task success rates of over 8%, effectively narrowing the simulation-to-reality gap. Furthermore, our absolute assessment enables spatio-temporal localization, providing visualization of when and where physical artifacts occur.
Evaluating physical reasoning in video models is difficult because absolute motion measurements depend on frame rate, object scale, and camera calibration, all of which are often ambiguous or unavailable in generated video. We propose a different approach. When two objects in the same scene obey the same physical law, their motions must satisfy predictable relationships, and these relationships hold independent of calibration. We introduce Principia, a benchmark that evaluates Newtonian physics through relational consistency between paired objects. Principia spans eight phenomena - gravity, restitution, friction, rotational inertia, projectile motion, momentum, pendulum, and mass-spring oscillation - across translational, rotational, collisional, and oscillatory dynamics, using real-world scenes recorded under controlled protocols. We also introduce a calibration-independent consistency score that quantifies physical violation directly in image space. Across thousands of generations from six state-of-the-art video generators, no model exceeds 0.42 on Principia despite all scoring around 0.8 on VBench. Vision-language models are evaluated on their ability to detect relational physics violations, with the best model achieving only 67% accuracy and most performing near chance level.