The Model Parking Tax: Quantifying the Hidden Energy Cost of Always-On GPU Model Deployment

Large Language Model (LLM) inference workloads are a rapidly growing contributor to data center energy consumption. Optimizing these deployments requires matching specific LLMs to the most efficient GPUs, but operators currently lack the tools to do so without exhaustively profiling each combination. While some predictive models exist, they still require profiling data and struggle to generalize to hardware unseen during training. To address this, we introduce WattGPU, featuring two predictive models for mean GPU power draw and Inter-Token Latency (ITL). Our approach leverages only publicly available LLM metadata and GPU specifications, eliminating the need for hardware access or profiling while enabling generalization to unseen NVIDIA server-grade GPUs and LLMs. We evaluate our models using rigorous leave-one-GPU-out and leave-one-LLM-out cross-validation on a dataset of 42 open-source LLMs (0.1B--27B parameters) and 8 GPUs under both offline and server scenarios. The mean power draw model achieves a median absolute percentage error of $\leq3.4\%$ for offline and $\leq13.5\%$ for server scenarios on unseen GPUs, while the latency model achieves $\leq8.5\%$ in server mode, both maintaining strong GPU ranking correlations for server scenarios (Kendall $τ\geq0.76$). Compared to standard physically grounded baselines -- Load-Scaled Thermal Design Power (TDP) for power draw and roofline for latency -- our models reduce median absolute percentage error by approximately 4$\times$ on unseen LLM-GPU combinations for server scenarios or approximately 2$\times$ for completely unseen GPUs. WattGPU's data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/maufadel/wattgpu.

Large language model (LLM) inference serving is priced by tokens, but GPU energy is consumed over inference windows. This accounting mismatch makes token-normalized metrics incomplete, since average output-token energy can decrease even when total request energy increases. We characterize this behavior with a decomposed energy model: a fixed one-time prefill with a fixed generation setup cost, while each output-token generation step adds marginal step energy. We evaluate this LLM inference energy model on NVIDIA H100 and H200 GPUs across dense and mixture-of-experts (MoE) models, reporting both request energy and token energy as functions of model type (M), phase (P), batch size (B), context length (C), and output length (N). For Llama-3.2-1B on H200 at batch-16 and context-4K, increasing output length from 10 to 512 tokens reduces token energy from 7.46 to 0.72 J/token while total batched inference-window energy increases from 1.19 to 5.93 kJ. Batching also reduces token energy, but the gain is context-bounded: at 10 output tokens, the batch-16 to batch-1 gain falls from 6.31x at context-512 to 1.17x at context-4K. MoE models amplify this effect: sparse routing and fragmented expert execution increase fixed energy at low concurrency, while batching spreads that energy across more generated tokens and substantially narrows the dense-vs.-MoE token-energy gap. These results show that energy-aware serving should jointly optimize both request energy and token energy, rather than only reducing per-token energy cost.

The operational energy consumption of large language model (LLM) inference is becoming an increasingly important component of the environmental footprint of deployed AI systems. However, direct measurement of inference energy often requires hardware telemetry, power instrumentation, or infrastructure-specific monitoring, limiting its applicability in comparative studies, early-stage system design, and sustainability reporting. This report presents an analytically structured, empirically calibrated, GPU-level methodology for estimating LLM inference energy on NVIDIA H100-class accelerators without direct runtime measurement. The proposed estimator combines parameter-scaled transformer FLOP accounting, calibrated memory-traffic factors, and hardware-specific energy coefficients for FP16/BF16 tensor-core computation and high-bandwidth-memory movement. It explicitly separates prompt prefill from autoregressive decoding, enabling energy estimates for input tokens, output tokens, and complete inference requests. The methodology further decomposes total energy into compute, parameter-access, key-value-cache write, and attention-read components, allowing the scaling behavior with model size, context length, and generated-token count to be analyzed. The resulting estimates are not intended to replace physical power measurements; rather, they provide transparent, reproducible, and assumption-explicit approximations suitable for model comparison, green-coding analysis, and design-time evaluation of LLM inference workloads.