From Tokens to Watt-hours: Analytical Energy Estimation for LLM Inference on Modern GPUs

Large Language Model (LLM) inference workloads are a rapidly growing contributor to data center energy consumption. Optimizing these deployments requires matching specific LLMs to the most efficient GPUs, but operators currently lack the tools to do so without exhaustively profiling each combination. While some predictive models exist, they still require profiling data and struggle to generalize to hardware unseen during training. To address this, we introduce \textit{WattGPU}, featuring two predictive models for mean GPU power draw and Inter-Token Latency (ITL). Our approach leverages only publicly available LLM metadata and GPU specifications, eliminating the need for hardware access or profiling while enabling generalization to unseen NVIDIA server-grade GPUs and LLMs. We evaluate our models using rigorous leave-one-GPU-out and leave-one-LLM-out cross-validation on a dataset of 42 open-source LLMs (0.1B--27B parameters) and 8 GPUs under both offline and server scenarios. The mean power draw model achieves a median absolute percentage error of $\leq3.4\%$ for offline and $\leq13.5\%$ for server scenarios on unseen GPUs, while the latency model achieves $\leq8.5\%$ in server mode, both maintaining strong GPU ranking correlations for server scenarios (Kendall $τ\geq0.76$). Compared to standard physically grounded baselines -- Load-Scaled Thermal Design Power (TDP) for power draw and roofline for latency -- our models reduce median absolute percentage error by approximately 4$\times$ on unseen LLM-GPU combinations for server scenarios or approximately 2$\times$ for completely unseen GPUs. WattGPU's data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/maufadel/wattgpu.

We present EnergyLens, an end-to-end framework for energy-aware large language model (LLM) inference optimization. As LLMs scale, predicting and reducing their energy footprint has become critical for sustainability and datacenter operations, yet existing approaches either require production-level code and expensive profiling or fail to accurately capture multi-GPU energy behavior. As a result, practitioners lack tools for deciding which optimizations to prioritize and for selecting among existing deployment configurations when exhaustive profiling is impractical. EnergyLens addresses this gap with an intuitive einsum-based interface that captures LLM specifications including fusion, parallelism, and compute-communication overlap, combined with load-imbalance-aware MoE modeling and an empirically driven communication energy model for multi-GPU settings. We validate EnergyLens on Llama3 and Qwen3-MoE across tensor-parallel and expert-parallel configurations, achieving mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) between 9.25% and 13.19% for multi-GPU prefill and decode energy, and 12.97% across SM allocations for Megatron-style overlap. Our energy-driven exploration reveals up to 1.47x and 52.9x energy variation across configurations in prefill and decode efficiency and motivates distributed serving. We further show that compute-communication overlap is difficult to optimize with intuition alone, but EnergyLens correctly identifies Pareto-optimal overlap configurations.

The rapid scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly increased computational cost, energy consumption, and inference latency, making accurate estimation essential for sustainable artificial intelligence deployment and hardware-aware design. In this work, we introduce Hybrid Modeling for Energy and Latency of LLMs (HYMELL), a hybrid three-level framework for estimating LLM inference latency and energy by combining analytical modeling with machine learning (ML). HYMELL models LLM execution through a three-level hierarchy: analytical estimation of primitive operations, ML prediction of higher-level components, and an end-to-end model that captures system-level overheads across both prefill and decode phases. The framework supports diverse architectures, including dense and mixture-of-experts (MoE) feed-forward networks (FFNs), as well as multi-head attention (MHA) and grouped-query attention (GQA) mechanisms. Evaluated on an NVIDIA H100 graphics processing unit (GPU), HYMELL achieves high predictive accuracy; notably, for LLaMA 3 8B, it attains less than 5% error for both prefill and decode phases. By predicting execution costs directly from architectural parameters, it enables fast, hardware-free design space exploration and energy-efficient optimization.