Overcoming "Physics Shock" in Earth Observation A Heteroscedastic Uncertainty Framework for PINN-based Flood Inference

Accurate and scalable flood mapping remains challenging due to limited ground observations, heterogeneous terrain conditions, and the difficulty of enforcing hydrodynamic consistency within data-driven models. This work introduces a physics-guided deep learning framework that integrates multi-modal remote sensing (Sentinel-1 SAR, Sentinel-2 optical imagery, and DEM-derived terrain features) with constraints from the depth-averaged shallow water equations (SWE). The proposed hybrid architecture combines a UNet to capture fine-scale spatial details with a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) to model basin-scale hydraulic interactions, while physics-informed residual losses ensure mass and momentum consistency. Evaluated across diverse floodplain settings, the hybrid model achieves an Intersection over Union of 0.82 and an F1 score of 0.90 for flood extent prediction, outperforming UNet-only and FNO-only baselines. Using hydrodynamic simulations as reference data, the model achieves an RMSE of 0.21 m for water depth and 0.15 m/s for flow velocity. Physics consistency is maintained, with low residuals and mass imbalance below 2.1%. Ablation studies confirm that removing physicsbased regularization significantly degrades performance, underscoring the value of physical constraints for stability and generalization. These results demonstrate that embedding hydrodynamic principles into deep learning yields more accurate, reliable, and physically coherent flood predictions, offering strong potential for operational monitoring and large-scale deployment.

Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities. However, purely data-driven machine learning models often struggle in data-scarce environments and may violate fundamental hydrological principles. Standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can generate physically inconsistent predictions, particularly when extrapolating to extreme weather conditions. To address these limitations, we propose a Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) framework that incorporates hydrological knowledge directly into the loss function of an LSTM model. Specifically, a Trend Alignment constraint penalizes directional inconsistencies between precipitation and discharge trends, improving model robustness without requiring complex hydrodynamic equations. This regularization encourages the model to learn physically plausible hydrograph behavior, even with limited training data, while enhancing reliability during peak flood events. Experimental results show that the proposed physics-informed model outperforms a standard LSTM baseline in data-scarce settings, increasing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) from 0.20 to 0.23 when trained on only 5% of the available data. Additional stress tests under simulated extreme climate scenarios demonstrate that the baseline model exhibits unstable behavior, whereas the physics-informed model maintains directional consistency and physical plausibility. Although accurately predicting extreme peak magnitudes remains challenging with limited data, the proposed approach substantially reduces unphysical fluctuations common in purely data-driven models. These findings demonstrate that simple physical constraints can significantly improve the reliability of deep learning models for real-time flood forecasting, offering a practical solution for ungauged basins and evolving climate conditions.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are a simple surrogate-modelling paradigm for partial differential equations, but their standard strong-form residual formulation is ill suited to the shallow water equations (SWE). It cannot enforce local conservation, handle discontinuities, or leverage the boundary-conforming unstructured meshes used in real-world applications. We introduce ``Data-Guided FVM-PINN'', a framework that replaces the strong-form residual with a differentiable, well-balanced Roe Riemann-solver finite-volume (FVM) loss evaluated on unstructured meshes. The major finding is that physics-only FVM-PINN training often fails on realistic 2D problems: the network collapses to a trivial low-momentum state that nearly satisfies the FVM-PINN residual but bears no resemblance to the true flow. A loss-landscape diagnostic shows that the FVM-PINN loss at zero momentum is only about $7\times$ larger than at the trained solution, a shallow basin that an ordinary optimizer falls into; adding even sparse data turns this into a $310\times$ separation, breaking the degeneracy. On a 2D block-in-channel benchmark, just $200$ random velocity measurements drop the velocity-field $L_2$ error by $22\times$ versus physics-only; $50$ measurements still deliver a $7\times$ reduction. A controlled ablation isolates the contribution of the FVM-PINN loss: it reduces velocity-field $L_2$ by \sim$$23\% in the sparse-data regime and is essentially neutral when dense reference data is available. On a real-world Savannah River reach ($1306$ cells, $3600$~s simulation, five Manning zones), the framework constructs an accurate surrogate from SRH-2D anchor data, with time-window decomposition reducing error monotonically via progressive initial-condition handoff.