Personalized dialogue requires more than recalling explicit user histories: systems also need to infer hidden user states that evolve through interaction and shape appropriate response strategies. Existing memory- and profile-based methods primarily reuse observable user information, offering limited support for modeling user-state dynamics or selecting actions based on how they shape future user states. We propose PUMA (Prospective User-state Modeling for Action selection), a framework grounded in the Free Energy Principle (FEP) that formulates personalization as decision-making under partial observability, centered on an explicit user state model that captures latent user states and their action-conditioned dynamics. At each turn, PUMA maintains a belief over the user's hidden state, refines the user state model for observation generation and action-conditioned state transition, and selects dialogue actions by minimizing expected free energy, balancing epistemic and pragmatic objectives under a unified criterion. This formulation shifts personalization from passive memory retrieval to model-based decision-making over user evolution. We instantiate PUMA on healthcare-oriented counseling and motivational interviewing benchmarks with latent state annotations for rigorous evaluation. Experiments show that PUMA improves long-horizon dialogue outcomes while maintaining strong response quality, and a cross-dataset study demonstrates more reliable user-state estimation and next-state prediction.
Persona drift remains a central challenge for personalized language models, as user profiles evolve over long interactions rather than remain permanently fixed. Models must therefore revise persistent persona states when preferences genuinely change, while avoiding updates driven by transient, ambiguous, or unresolved observations. We propose CORE, which separates turn-local evidence from persistent persona-state revision and selectively updates grounded user preferences through uncertainty-aware belief revision. We also introduce PERSIST, a held-out post-anchor benchmark for persona-state robustness under sequential interaction stress, covering ambiguity, conflict, and controlled social influence. Across ALOE, PersonaChat, and PERSIST, CORE improves personalized alignment and robustness, with complementary gains in normalized closed-slot state fidelity. Human evaluation and mechanistic controls further support explicit update control beyond stronger generation or persistent memory alone.
User preferences evolve across months of interaction, and tracking them requires inferring when a stated preference has been changed by a subsequent life event. We define this problem as long-horizon personalization and observe that progress on it is limited by data availability and measurement, with no existing resource providing both naturalistic long-horizon interactions and the ground-truth provenance needed to diagnose why models fail. We introduce a data generator that produces conversations from a structured mental state graph, yielding ground-truth provenance for every preference change across 6-month timelines, and from it construct HorizonBench, a benchmark of 4,245 items from 360 simulated users with 6-month conversation histories averaging ~4,300 turns and ~163K tokens. HorizonBench provides a testbed for long-context modeling, memory-augmented architectures, theory-of-mind reasoning, and user modeling. Across 25 frontier models, the best model reaches 52.8% and most score at or below the 20% chance baseline. When these models err on evolved preferences, over a third of the time they select the user's originally stated value without tracking the updated user state. This belief-update failure persists across context lengths and expression explicitness levels, identifying state-tracking capability as the primary bottleneck for long-horizon personalization.
Large language models (LLMs) are typically aligned with population-level preferences, despite substantial variation across individual users. We introduce POPI, a user-level personalization framework that separates the problem into two components connected by a natural-language interface: a shared inference model that distills heterogeneous user signals into a concise preference summary, and a shared generator that conditions on this summary to produce personalized responses. Both components are trained under a unified preference-optimization objective, with reinforcement learning handling the non-differentiable inference step. This objective decomposes into generator approximation error and summary informativeness, revealing how a single loss simultaneously drives accurate generation and informative summarization. Because the interface is natural language, learned summaries can be inferred once per user and reused across different generators -- including frozen, black-box commercial APIs. Across four personalization benchmarks, POPI generally improves personalization quality while reducing context overhead by up to an order of magnitude.