We develop a branched signature kernel solver for linear and nonlinear ordinary differential equations driven by a \emph{single observed trajectory} of a possibly rough forcing signal--a setting common within earthquake engineering, finance, biology, and structural health monitoring, where only one forcing realization is available, and the solver must respect the underlying physical law without an ensemble of realizations. We first introduce a count-sampling construction method to turn the single observation into a hierarchical family of N+1 nested training paths on which the branched signature kernel can be evaluated; this allows the signature kernel machinery, originally designed for multi-realization regression problems, to operate on a single-trajectory observation. Then we build a kernel-collocation framework, which places the ansatz either on the highest-order derivative of the solution or on the solution itself. We prove a universal approximation theorem for the branched signature kernel, leveraging the Hairer--Kelly morphism to express branched signature evaluations through geometric signatures of time-extended paths. The offline solver is extended to a streaming Test/Train/Retrain protocol with optional closed-form online updates in both linear and nonlinear cases. Numerical experiments on six benchmarks show accurate, stable predictions across all regimes.
Discovering the memory or nonlocal kernel governing an integro-differential equation (IDE) from sparse and noisy observations is an ill-posed inverse problem. Existing identification methods often rely on problem-specific analytical derivations, specialized observation requirements, or restrictive assumptions about the kernel, limiting their applicability across different classes of IDEs. In this work, we propose a differentiable-solver-based framework for discovering memory and nonlocal kernels directly from spatiotemporal observations. Within the solver, the unknown kernel is represented using a constrained Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN) parameterization, with the physical constraints imposed through two different approaches: a Bernstein-polynomial-based Monotone--Convex KAN (MC-KAN), whose coefficient constraints enforce positivity, monotonic decrease, and convexity by construction, and a Chebyshev-based KAN (Cheb-KAN), in which the same properties are encouraged through soft penalty terms. After training, symbolic regression is applied to the learned kernels to obtain interpretable closed-form representations. We evaluate both methods on benchmarks spanning a one-dimensional Volterra equation, a one-dimensional viscoelastic wave partial integro-differential equation, and a two-dimensional nonlocal reaction-diffusion equation with an anisotropic coupled kernel. For the 1D problems, both methods recover the correct kernel functional form and achieve comparable solution-reconstruction accuracy. In contrast, for the sparse and noisy 2D nonlocal problem, the hard-constrained MC-KAN consistently achieves lower kernel reconstruction errors than the soft-constrained Cheb-KAN. Our results demonstrate that enforcing physically motivated shape constraints by construction provides greater robustness than soft penalties for multidimensional kernel discovery from sparse and noisy observations.
Neural rough differential equations (NRDEs) stay accurate under irregular sampling while taking far fewer integration steps than standard neural differential equations, summarising a finely sampled driver by its log-signature and advancing the hidden state over coarse intervals using the log-ODE method. This efficiency rests on the shuffle algebra, the algebraic counterpart of Stratonovich calculus. This reliance means NRDEs cannot expose the quadratic-variation terms Itô dynamics require, nor the ordered covariant derivatives that govern Itô flows on connection-equipped manifolds. Ameliorating this, we introduce Branched Neural Rough Differential Equations (B-NRDEs), a Hopf-algebraic framework that recasts the NRDE log-ODE step as geometric numerical integration on the state-space manifold, matching the driving algebra to the governing calculus: Grossman--Larson rooted trees for Euclidean Itô dynamics, Munthe-Kaas--Wright planar rooted trees for ordered covariant derivatives on manifolds, and the shuffle algebra in the classical Stratonovich case. This yields intrinsic coarse-step dynamics that exactly preserve manifold constraints. Finally, we introduce a branched signature-kernel objective to enable Itô-consistent law matching by making quadratic-variation terms visible during training. On rough Bergomi volatility, sim-to-real SO(3) dynamics forecasting, and SPD covariance dynamics, B-NRDEs offer a unified, effective approach to stochastic and manifold-valued dynamics beyond the Euclidean--Stratonovich setting.
Time series prototype learning is fundamentally challenged by observational ambiguity. Discrete architectures fail to resolve this, as they lack the capacity to decouple stochastic noise from continuous dynamics. Furthermore, rigid closed-set assumptions fail to capture unseen diversity. To address these limitations, we propose a hierarchical ordinary differential equation clustering network, which utilizes neural ordinary differential equation to model latent state evolution as a continuous integral curve. This formulation enforces temporal continuity to effectively disentangle smooth feature trends from stochastic noise, while our adaptive hierarchical mechanism autonomously determines the appropriate number of prototypes without rigid prior constraints. Validated on the early link failure detection task with irregularly sampled time series, the proposed method effectively extracts underlying physical prototypes, thereby enabling robust failure detection. Our code is available at https://github.com/NJ-LNN/Hierarchical-ODE.