What Molecular Structure Cannot Tell Us: A Taxonomy of Explainability Gaps in GNN-Based Drug Toxicity Prediction

Explainable artificial intelligence approaches accelerate drug discovery by improving molecular representation learning, identifying key molecular structures, and rationalizing drug property prediction. However, developing end-to-end explainable models for target-specific structure-activity relationship modeling remains challenging because compound-protein interaction data are often limited for individual targets, and small changes in chemical substituents or local structural motifs can cause large differences in molecular properties. Therefore, effectively leveraging structural and property information to identify key moieties associated with compound-protein affinity is essential. We propose a graph neural network (GNN) framework that uses property and structural information from activity-cliff molecule pairs targeting specific proteins to predict compound-protein affinity, measured by half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50), and explain property differences. To improve explainability, we trained GNNs with structure-aware loss functions using group lasso and sparse group lasso regularization, which prune and highlight molecular subgraphs relevant to activity differences. We applied this framework to activity-cliff data from molecules targeting six tyrosine-protein kinases across the Src, Abl, and Tec families, as well as anaplastic lymphoma kinase. Integrating common- and uncommon-node information with sparse group lasso improved target-specific molecular property prediction, producing lower root mean square errors and higher Pearson correlation coefficients. Regularization also enhanced GNN feature attribution by improving graph-level global direction scores and atom-level coloring accuracy. These results support more interpretable drug discovery pipelines, particularly for identifying critical molecular substructures during lead optimization.

Molecular toxicity prediction is increasingly used to prioritise compounds before experimental testing, but conventional benchmark performance can overstate practical utility when structurally related molecules occur across training and test folds. We introduce ToxLens, a reproducible multi-task graph-learning framework for 11 toxicity endpoints spanning Ames mutagenicity, acute oral toxicity, hERG inhibition, and Tox21 nuclear-receptor and stress-response assays. The workflow combines conservative chemical curation, sphere-exclusion filtering, a leakage-aware UMAP-HDBSCAN split, parallel graph and global-feature encoders joined by late concatenation, temperature-scaled Monte Carlo dropout with conformal-style prediction sets, applicability-domain analysis, and SHAP-guided toxicophore discovery with occlusion controls. On the leakage-controlled test fold, a five-seed soft-voting ensemble achieved a Matthews correlation coefficient score of 0.44, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve score of 0.83, and an area under the precision-recall curve score of 0.58. It exceeded four ECFP4-based shallow baselines on all 11 endpoints under the same split and validation-based threshold-selection protocol. Controlled ablations showed that the global pathway was important, whereas late concatenation outperformed the tested gated and feature-wise linear modulation fusion variants. Conformal-style prediction sets revealed substantial endpoint-specific variation in set efficiency, and discrimination and calibration improved with similarity to the training domain. Retraining on fixed published Tox21 Challenge and TDA folds produced competitive, but not uniformly state-of-the-art, performance. SHAP-guided occlusion and consensus subgraph mining yielded model-derived structural hypotheses, 44 of which contained at least one occurrence that passed the predefined counterfactual criteria.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) applied to drug-drug interaction (DDI) prediction rely exclusively on molecular structure encoded as SMILES-derived graphs. Prior work in this series demonstrated that model performance is bounded by the structural information content of training labels -- an Information Ceiling -- that architectural refinements alone cannot overcome. The present study investigates whether pharmacogenomic prior knowledge from the PharmGKB database partially closes this ceiling by providing metabolic pathway context that is independent of, and complementary to, molecular structure. Cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzyme substrate, inhibitor, and inducer annotations for four clinically relevant isoforms (CYP2D6, CYP3A4, CYP2C19, CYP2C9) are extracted and incorporated as a 12-dimensional feature vector concatenated to the molecular embedding prior to interaction prediction. Experiments are conducted under both pair-level and drug-level data splits to quantify generalization to unseen drugs. Results indicate that knowledge graph (KG) augmentation substantially improves DDI type classification under pair-level split conditions (F1-macro: 0.532 vs. 0.241 baseline), while binary interaction detection and drug-level generalization remain bounded by the Information Ceiling (AUC inflation: 0.224 vs. 0.250 baseline). Mechanistic validation on strictly held-out compounds confirms that augmentation preferentially improves CYP2C9-mediated interaction prediction, with probabilities increasing from 0.033-0.117 (baseline) to 0.560-0.586 (KG-augmented). An extension to single-molecule toxicity prediction on the Tox21 benchmark confirms that the effect is contingent on pharmacogenomic annotation coverage. These findings motivate the multimodal framework proposed for the subsequent study in this series.