Adaptive Temporal Gating of Longitudinal Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Alzheimer's Prediction

In longitudinal Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis support, clinical and imaging information is often collected at irregular visits. Integrating these multimodal observations may improve diagnostic assessment, but naive fusion can degrade performance when MRI is noisy or intermittently unavailable. We propose AT-Attn, a temporal-aware multimodal framework that combines Change-and-Time encoding, time-biased asymmetric cross-attention, and gated fusion to integrate MRI with longitudinal clinical information. We evaluate AT-Attn on an MRI-retained ADNI cohort of 1,520 patients using structural MRI, six cognitive-scale trajectories, and seven static clinical variables under patient-level five-fold cross-validation. The main asymmetric AT-Attn model achieves accuracy 0.719+/-0.024, macro F1 0.721+/-0.023, ROC-AUC 0.873+/-0.013, and PR-AUC 0.783+/-0.018, outperforming unimodal and naive multimodal fusion baselines while remaining competitive with strong tabular baselines. These results suggest that a temporal-aware and constrained fusion strategy can help structural MRI contribute clinically relevant complementary information for patient-level AD diagnosis support.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is a longitudinal process with subtle pathological cues in the early stages. Yet, computational constraints have limited most neuroimaging models to either compromise spatial information or limit the number of longitudinal scans. We aim to overcome this bottleneck and fully leverage high-resolution, variable-length T1w structural MRI (4D sMRI) scan sequences. We introduce Parcel2Progression (P2P), a Longitudinal Transformer Framework which tackles this challenge using an Atlas-guided Parcel Encoder that tokenizes 3D scans into a set of richer anatomically grounded representations. A Longitudinal Transformer then integrates irregular, arbitrary-length longitudinal visits with patient age. This synergy delivers two key advantages: (1) parcel-specific interpretability, and (2) computational tractability for long-term analysis, which scales linearly with the number of scans compared to a naive quadratic 4D ViT cost. P2P outperforms prior works and baselines in both MCI (Mild Cognitive Impairment) to AD conversion prediction and AD vs. CN (Cognitively Normal) classification tasks across ADNI, AIBL, and MIRIAD datasets. Leveraging longitudinal scans boosts performance over single-scan baselines by up to 5% and 7% in balanced accuracy for AD classification and MCI conversion prediction tasks, respectively. Interpretability analysis using parcel saliencies and attention rollouts reveals clinically consistent atrophy patterns in AD and MCI subjects. We also demonstrate the frameworks' reliability in anomaly detection using a synthetic dataset, and test the model's generalizability for other neurodegenerative diseases like Frontotemporal Dementia.

Accurate prediction of conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimers Diseases (AD) is essential for early intervention, however, developing reliable conversion predictive models is difficult to develop due to limited longitudinal data availability We evaluate TabPFN (Tabular Pre-Trained Foundation Network) against traditional machine learning methods for predicting 3 year MCI to AD conversion using the TADPOLE dataset derived from ADNI. Using multimodal biomarker features extracted from demographics, APOE4, MRI volumes, CSF markers, and PET imaging, we conducted an experimental comparison across varying training set sizes (N=50 to 1000) and models including XGBoost, Random Forest, LightGBM, and Logistic Regression. TabPFN achieved one the highest performance (AUC=0.892), outperforming LightGBM (AUC=0.860) and demonstrating advantages in low data settings. At N=50 training samples, TabPFN maintained strong AUC while the traditional machine learning models struggles at small training samples. These findings demonstrate that foundation models are promising for disease prediction in data limited scenarios, such as Alzheimers diseases.