Human coordination often relies on the ability to influence the beliefs of others through strategic action. In multi-agent reinforcement learning, opponent shaping attempts to replicate this influence, though existing methods typically operate within an opponent's parameter, policy, or value space. Meanwhile, belief-manipulation techniques in hidden-role games often rely on hard-coded objectives, such as deception or belief saturation. We propose Differentiable Belief-based Opponent Shaping (D-BOS), a first-order method that treats each observer's belief as the shaped opponent state and differentiates through k-step softmax-Bayes belief dynamics. Rather than explicitly rewarding deceptive or cooperative behavior, our method treats the belief state as the target for shaping. This allows the optimal strategy to emerge naturally from the environment's reward structure. This belief-space formulation provides an opponent-shaping signal by differentiating through opponent belief updates, and naturally extends to multiple observers by aggregating gradients over their individual inferred belief trajectories. Empirically, D-BOS outperforms PPO and BBM in hidden-role games, with the largest gains in mixed-motive settings.
Modeling an opponent's intent is critical for effective decision-making in non-cooperative, competitive, and general-sum multi-agent reinforcement learning. Existing opponent modeling methods encode intent using an embedding derived from episode information chosen a priori, such as the opponent's next action or a future environment state, and use this to guide the ego-agent's behavior. These approaches assume that the chosen information is universally representative of intent; however, we show empirically that this is not the case as intentions are often task- and environment-dependent. To address this, we introduce a task-adaptive opponent modeling framework that learns a performance-driven mixture of multiple intent representations. We further introduce a new intention representation that maximizes mutual information with the ego-agent's future returns, thereby capturing opponent information that is most directly relevant to performance. Our approach consistently matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art baselines across diverse tasks and yields insights into when and why different opponent modeling strategies succeed.
Lux AI Season 3 requires agents to act under partial observability, randomized episode level dynamics, and a best of five match structure that rewards both tactical execution and fast adaptation. We present HORIZON, a hierarchical agent that combines symmetry aware spatial perception, dual memory belief tracking, relic centric graph attention, information gain driven exploration, and an opponent conditioned policy mixture. HORIZON separates short horizon control from cross match meta reasoning, while auxiliary belief and world model objectives stabilize learning. Trained with PPO in a large scale JAX simulator, the resulting agent explicitly infers hidden game parameters and opponent style. Experiments show consistent gains in match win rate, episode win rate, adaptation gain, and league rating over strong recurrent and feed forward baselines.
Sparse rewards are a major bottleneck in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), where simultaneous learning induces non-stationarity and makes reward design especially delicate. Reward shaping can accelerate learning, but in the multi-agent setting it must preserve the strategic structure of the problem rather than merely improve short-term optimization. We propose Automatic Reward-shaping in Multi-agent Systems (ARMS), a self-supervised reward shaping framework for MARL that learns dense shaping signals from sparse environmental rewards through trajectory ranking. Since single-agent trajectory-ranking guarantees do not directly transfer to MARL, we reformulate policy invariance through conditional best-response reasoning, and show that if certain conditions hold, then using shaping rewards preserves each agent's best-response set under fixed opponent policies, and consequently preserve the set of Nash equilibria. Guided by this perspective, ARMS alternates between policy learning and reward learning while sharing shaping parameters across agents for efficiency. Experiments in a partially observable multi-agent pathfinding domain show that ARMS improves sampling efficiency under increasing reward sparsity and agent count, generalizes to unseen environments, and reveals a MARL-specific failure mode in which limited exploration and coupled policy--reward dynamics induce oscillatory behavior. Increasing exploration mitigates this effect and stabilizes learning. To the best of our knowledge, ARMS is the first automatic reward shaping framework for MARL whose design is motivated by a game-theoretic equilibrium-preservation result.