Lux AI Season 3 requires agents to act under partial observability, randomized episode level dynamics, and a best of five match structure that rewards both tactical execution and fast adaptation. We present HORIZON, a hierarchical agent that combines symmetry aware spatial perception, dual memory belief tracking, relic centric graph attention, information gain driven exploration, and an opponent conditioned policy mixture. HORIZON separates short horizon control from cross match meta reasoning, while auxiliary belief and world model objectives stabilize learning. Trained with PPO in a large scale JAX simulator, the resulting agent explicitly infers hidden game parameters and opponent style. Experiments show consistent gains in match win rate, episode win rate, adaptation gain, and league rating over strong recurrent and feed forward baselines.
Learning to adapt strategies through interaction is a key step toward more general and autonomous LLM agents. Existing approaches typically achieve behavioral adaptation by revising skill libraries. However, in multi-agent environments, opponents may simultaneously update their strategies, causing the environment itself to evolve continuously. Applying skill-revision methods designed for static environments in such settings therefore amounts to updating against an obsolete reference. To address this challenge, we introduce OASE (Opponent-Aware Selective Evolution), which identifies and adopts genuinely beneficial skill revisions in dynamic multi-agent environments. Specifically, OASE conducts paired comparisons between a candidate skill and the incumbent under identical conditions anchored by historical snapshots of opponent strategies, and adopts the candidate only when its estimated payoff gain exceeds an acceptance threshold. We evaluate OASE in two decision-making scenarios: first-price auctions and private-cost Cournot competition. Experimental results show that, compared with a Reflexion-style baseline, OASE achieves a lower final equilibrium distance in both environments while accepting substantially fewer skill revisions, thereby suppressing strategy changes that lack sufficient payoff support. OASE therefore replaces blind updating with evidence-anchored selection, allowing agents to adapt stably and efficiently even as opponents continuously evolve.
Accurately predicting opponents' behavior from interactions is a fundamental capability for large language model (LLM)-based agents in multi-agent and game-theoretic environments. Existing approaches often entangle opponent modeling with prediction, relying on implicit contextual reasoning and limiting adaptability in dynamic interactions. To this end, we propose Structured Opponent Modeling (SOM), a two-stage opponent modeling framework that distinctly separates opponent model construction and opponent prediction. At the construction stage, SOM employs a Structural Causal Model (SCM), a graph-based formalism for representing dependencies among variables, to capture directed links between opponents' observations and actions, yielding an explicit and structured opponent representation. At the prediction stage, the LLM performs structured reasoning along clear pathways derived from the SCM, improving both prediction accuracy and stability. Extensive experiments on diverse multi-agent benchmarks demonstrate that SOM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based reasoning baselines, enabling more accurate and adaptable strategic decision-making in complex and dynamic multi-agent interactions.
Human coordination often relies on the ability to influence the beliefs of others through strategic action. In multi-agent reinforcement learning, opponent shaping attempts to replicate this influence, though existing methods typically operate within an opponent's parameter, policy, or value space. Meanwhile, belief-manipulation techniques in hidden-role games often rely on hard-coded objectives, such as deception or belief saturation. We propose Differentiable Belief-based Opponent Shaping (D-BOS), a first-order method that treats each observer's belief as the shaped opponent state and differentiates through k-step softmax-Bayes belief dynamics. Rather than explicitly rewarding deceptive or cooperative behavior, our method treats the belief state as the target for shaping. This allows the optimal strategy to emerge naturally from the environment's reward structure. This belief-space formulation provides an opponent-shaping signal by differentiating through opponent belief updates, and naturally extends to multiple observers by aggregating gradients over their individual inferred belief trajectories. Empirically, D-BOS outperforms PPO and BBM in hidden-role games, with the largest gains in mixed-motive settings.