When Are Multimodal Predictions Biologically Supported? A Diagnostic Evaluation Framework

Foundation models (FMs) have emerged as powerful representation extractors for medical data, yet their generalizability to datasets under distribution shift remains underexplored. This work systematically evaluates FM-based representations on a suite of computational pathology tasks across two real-world commercial cohorts, IH-BC and IH-NSCLC, drawn from the licensed in-house (IH) oncology dataset. The analysis focuses on two modalities, whole-slide images and transcriptomic profiles, drawn from the IH multimodal data. We first benchmark unimodal probing performance across five FMs on eight downstream classification tasks, and find that image and omics representations carry complementary predictive signals. Then we investigate whether multimodal fusion can yield additional gains over unimodal baselines by comparing three image-omics fusion strategies built on paired representations. The trustworthiness of selected unimodal and multimodal pipelines is further assessed through conformal prediction. Our results show that FM representations achieve competitive performance on out-of-distribution data and that multimodal fusion helps mainly when no single modality dominates the signal. Conformal prediction reveals that in the majority of cases where a point prediction fails, the true diagnosis remains recoverable within the prediction set, reinforcing the value of uncertainty-aware inference for clinical support.

Neurobiological and neurodegenerative diseases are inherently multifactorial, arising from coupled influences spanning genetic susceptibility, brain alterations, and environmental and behavioral factors. Multimodal modeling has therefore been increasingly adopted for disease diagnosis by integrating complementary evidence across data sources. However, in both large-scale cohorts and real-world clinical workflows, modality coverage is often incomplete, making many multimodal models brittle when one or more modalities are unavailable. Existing approaches to incomplete multimodal diagnosis typically rely on group-wise or static priors, which may fail to capture subject-specific cross-modal dependencies; moreover, many models provide limited interpretability into which evidence sources drive the final decision. To address these limitations, we propose Conditional Evidence Reconstruction and Decomposition (CERD), a framework for interpretable multimodal diagnosis with incomplete modalities. CERD first reconstructs missing modality representations conditioned on each subject's observed inputs, then decomposes diagnostic evidence into shared cross-modal corroboration and modality-specific cues via logit-level attribution. Experiments on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) demonstrate that CERD outperforms competitive baselines under incomplete-modality settings while producing structured and clinically aligned evidence attributions for trustworthy decision support.

Breast cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, and timely accurate diagnosis is critical to improving survival outcomes. While convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated strong performance on histopathology image classification, and machine learning models on structured electronic health records (EHR) have shown utility for clinical risk stratification, most existing work treats these modalities in isolation. This paper presents a systematic multimodal framework that integrates patch-level histopathology features from the BreCaHAD dataset with structured clinical data from MIMIC-IV. We train and evaluate unimodal image models (a simple CNN baseline and ResNet-18 with transfer learning), unimodal tabular models (XGBoost and a multilayer perceptron), and an intermediate-fusion model that concatenates latent representations from both modalities. ResNet-18 achieves near-perfect accuracy (1.000) and AUC (1.000) on three-class patch-level classification, while XGBoost achieves 98% accuracy on the EHR prediction task. The intermediate fusion model yields a macro-average AUC of 0.997, outperforming all unimodal baselines and delivering the largest improvements on the diagnostically critical but class-imbalanced mitosis category (AUC 0.994). Grad-CAM and SHAP interpretability analyses validate that model decisions align with established pathological and clinical criteria. Our results demonstrate that multimodal integration delivers meaningful improvements in both predictive performance and clinical transparency.