Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for modeling epistemic uncertainty in neural networks by treating predictions as distributions rather than deterministic values. Meanwhile, diffusion-based models for 3D molecular graph generation operate on fragile geometric structures governed by strict chemical constraints, making inference highly sensitive to uncertainty miscalibration. A largely overlooked issue is that epistemic uncertainty arising from the learned denoiser interacts with the aleatoric uncertainty intentionally injected during reverse diffusion, leading to systematic variance inflation and a mismatch between the true distribution and the simulated distribution. This effect is particularly detrimental for high-precision molecular generation, where even small deviations can violate chemical validity. In this work, we provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of how epistemic uncertainty propagates through diffusion inference and degrades sampling quality. Building on this investigation, we propose UCD (Uncertainty-Calibrated Diffusion), a simple yet effective method that calibrates the reverse diffusion process to account for epistemic uncertainty. Extensive experiments on standard 3D molecular benchmarks demonstrate that UCD consistently improves sampling quality across diverse baseline methods, establishing new state-of-the-art performance for 3D molecular diffusion. The code is available at https://github.com/jiuguaiwf/UCD.
Diffusion models have seen wide adoption for 3D molecular generation, yet they offer no principled signal of when a generated molecule is likely to be of low quality. We propose a post-hoc method for estimating per-sample uncertainty in pretrained molecular diffusion models. Building on a Laplace approximation of the denoising network, we measure the variability of the noise prediction across the generation trajectory. Empirically, we show that the resulting uncertainty score is informative of sample quality, exhibiting a negative correlation with established sample-level quality metrics. We further study how the proposed uncertainty score can be used to filter generated samples, improving model performance via test-time scaling.
Paul Seij, Christian A. Naesseth, Stephan Mandt +1
Molecular graph generation (MGG) is essentially a multi-class generative task, aimed at predicting categories of atoms and bonds under strict chemical and structural constraints. However, many prevailing diffusion paradigms learn to regress numerical embeddings and rely on a hard discretization rule during sampling to recover discrete labels. This introduces a fundamental discrepancy between training and sampling. While models are trained for point-wise numerical fidelity, the sampling process fundamentally relies on crossing categorical decision boundaries. This discrepancy forces the model to expend efforts on intra-class variations that become irrelevant after discretization, ultimately compromising diversity, structural statistics, and generalization performance. Therefore, we propose TopBF, a unified framework that (i) performs MGG directly in continuous parameter distributions, (ii) learns graph-topological understanding through a Quasi-Wasserstein optimal-transport coupling under geodesic costs, and (iii) supports controllable, property-conditioned generation during sampling without retraining the base model. TopBF innovatively employs cumulative distribution function (CDF) to compute category probabilities induced by the Gaussian channel, thereby unifying the training objective with the sampling discretization operation. Experiments on QM9 and ZINC250k demonstrate superior structural fidelity and efficient generation with improved performance.
Three-dimensional (3D) molecule generation has been dominated by diffusion models, which achieve strong generation quality but typically require the molecular size to be specified a priori. Recent autoregressive approaches have substantially narrowed the performance gap while naturally supporting variable-length generation and conditioning on partial molecular context. However, balancing unconditional and context-conditioned generation remains challenging. We introduce KRONOS, a latent autoregressive diffusion framework that generates molecules in the latent space of a pre-trained autoencoder, jointly modeling molecular graph topology and geometry, while retaining the flexibility of autoregressive generation. We further introduce a mixed training strategy inspired by Fill-in-the Middle (FIM) paradigm, enabling both unconditional and fragment-conditioned molecular generation within a single left-to-right autoregressive model. Experiments on QM9 and GEOM-Drugs demonstrate that KRONOS achieves leading unconditional generation performance among autoregressive methods, while remaining competitive with diffusion models. Moreover, fragment-conditioned generation is achieved with negligible impact on unconditional generation performance, demonstrating that both generation paradigms can be supported within a single architecture.