MINTS: Minimalist Thompson Sampling

We consider Bayesian bandit models and prove that Thompson sampling makes at most twice the expected number of mistakes (selections of a suboptimal arm) as any other policy. Our analysis applies as long as the latent arm processes are independent and each arm evolves only when played. For stochastic bandits with best arm defined via mean reward, this confirms a conjecture of Guha and Munagala from 2014, where the factor $2$ is already best possible. The result holds under any nonincreasing sequence of round weights, including fixed horizon and geometric discounting.

We prove that Thompson sampling exhibits $\tilde{O}(σd \sqrt{T} + d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(Σ_0)})$ Bayesian regret in the linear-Gaussian bandit with a $\mathcal{N}(μ_0, Σ_0)$ prior distribution on the coefficients, where $d$ is the dimension, $T$ is the time horizon, $r$ is the maximum $\ell_2$ norm of the actions, and $σ^2$ is the noise variance. In contrast to existing regret bounds, this shows that to within logarithmic factors, the prior-dependent burn-in'' term $d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(Σ_0)}$ decouples additively from the minimax (long run) regret $σd \sqrt{T}$. Previous regret bounds exhibit a multiplicative dependence on these terms. We establish these results via a new elliptical potential'' lemma, and also provide a lower bound indicating that the burn-in term is unavoidable.

Bakhtiari, Lattimore and Szepesv'ari (COLT 2025) proved that Thompson sampling (TS) has Bayesian regret $\tilde O(d^{5/2}\sqrt n)$ for bandit convex optimisation with convex \emph{monotone} ridge losses $f(x)=\ell(\ip{x}{\theta})$, and asked whether monotonicity of the link is necessary. We give a qualitative negative answer. For every prior on $[0,1]$-valued, $1$-Lipschitz convex ridge losses with an arbitrary convex, possibly non-monotone, link, and for any fixed measurable selection of minimisers, exact-posterior TS has Bayesian regret $O\big((d+1)^4\sqrt{dn}\,\log(e+nd\max\{1,\diam K\})\big)=\tilde O(d^{9/2}\sqrt n)$. The monotone proof relies on a single-removal John-ellipsoid dichotomy; we show by an explicit twelve-point configuration that this dichotomy fails for non-monotone links, and replace it by an $O(d^2)$ cardinality bound for ``uninformative'' configurations. The bound uses a Boolean rounding argument: a $0$-$1$ matrix within $1/(4r)$ in max-norm of a rank-$r$ matrix has rank at most $2r-1$. We construct $d(d+1)$ uninformative losses, showing that the cardinality bound is tight up to constants in the large-diameter-to-gap regime, and give a self-contained information-ratio-to-regret transfer that is uniform over fixed measurable selections. Whether the $d^{5/2}$ dependence of the monotone case can be retained remains open.