cs.LGJun 3, 2026

Towards Unified and Data-Efficient Prognostics and Health Management with Tabular Foundation Models

Authors: Raffael Theiler, Lev Telyatnikov, Leandro Von Krannichfeldt, Olga Fink

Organizations: IMOS Lab, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland

Abstract

Data-driven Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) uses time-varying condition-monitoring data to diagnose system states and estimate remaining useful life in engineered assets. These tasks are central to maintenance planning, but industrial PHM data are often fragmented, partially observed, and poorly labeled, which hinders supervised learning. Foundation models offer a route toward reusable predictive systems, yet most time-series foundation models are designed for forecasting and assume long, coherent, regularly sampled sequences. To address this gap, we propose a framework for applying Tabular Foundation Models to industrial time series using in-context learning, and we evaluate them on a variety of PHM tasks. By converting raw unit-level signals into tabular rows, we show that these models perform well across multiple tasks - including prognostics, and diagnostics - and are highly data efficient. We compare them directly with sequence models, transformer baselines, and gradient-boosted trees under a common evaluation protocol. The results indicate that tabular foundation models achieve the best average ranks across prognostic and diagnostic tasks. Our findings further show that PFN-based models are competitive in low-data regimes, that temporal context can be preserved in the tabular representation, and that performance depends on representative context construction under subsampling. These results demonstrate that tabular foundation models provide a practical and general interface for heterogeneous PHM problems.

Explore similar work

CardsList
May 27, 2026cs.AI

Picid: A Modular Evaluation Infrastructure for Reproducible PHM Across Tasks and Domains

Progress in Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is hindered by the lack of standardized and reusable evaluation practices across tasks, datasets, and application domains. Reported results are often difficult to reproduce and compare, as key protocol choices, such as data splits, preprocessing, label alignment, temporal windowing, and metrics, are often implicit or implemented ad hoc. We introduce \picid, a modular evaluation infrastructure that formalizes the PHM evaluation pipeline as an explicit, executable, and reproducible protocol. Through well-defined abstractions, \picid enforces deterministic, leakage-safe dataset construction while remaining flexible across diverse PHM settings. The framework supports fault detection, diagnostics, and prognostics through a unified interface and can be extended to new datasets and model classes without violating protocol invariants. By standardizing data contracts and evaluation boundaries, \picid also enables fair cross-task comparisons across diagnostics (classification) and prognostics (regression), allowing identical model families to be evaluated consistently across heterogeneous settings. We demonstrate \picid through an empirical evaluation of thirteen models on twelve datasets spanning batteries, bearings, turbofan engines, hydraulics, filtration systems, and buildings. This work establishes a reusable foundation for standardized, fair and reproducible evaluation in PHM.
Lev Telyatnikov, Raffael Theiler, Leandro Von Krannichfeldt +1
PrognosticsPixelloopInvariance
AskPDF
May 18, 2026cs.LG

Distilling Tabular Foundation Models for Structured Health Data

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) achieve strong performance on health datasets, but their inference cost and infrastructure requirements limit practical use. We study whether their predictive behavior can be transferred to lightweight tabular models through knowledge distillation. Since in-context TFMs condition on the training set at inference time, naive distillation can introduce context leakage; we address this with stratified out-of-fold teacher labeling. Across 1919 healthcare datasets, 66 TFM teachers, 44 student families, and several multi-teacher ensembles, we find that distilled students retain at least 90%90\% of teacher AUC, outperforming teachers in some cases, while running at least 26×26\times faster on CPU and preserving calibration and fairness critical for health applications. Moreover, multi-teacher averaging does not consistently improve over the best single teacher. Leakage-aware distillation is thus a viable route for bringing TFM-quality predictions into inference-constrained health settings.
Aditya Tanna, Nassim Bouarour, Mohamed Bouadi +2
Tabular Foundation ModelsElectronic Health Record Foundation ModelsKnowledge DistillationChain-Of-Thought DistillationFoundation ModelClinical Notes
AskPDF
Jun 10, 2026cs.LG

Time-Series Foundation Model Embeddings for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is essential for industrial predictive maintenance, yet many learning-based approaches rely on extensive feature engineering or large labeled datasets to train task-specific sequence models. In this work, we introduce a lightweight learning approach, in which we leverage a frozen pretrained time-series foundation model (TSFM) and combine it with a small regression head for RUL estimation from multivariate sensor streams. More specifically, we use Chronos-2 as a frozen backbone to extract context window features and train a lightweight regression neural network for RUL prediction. Experiments on real-world industrial sensor data from two device types show that Chronos-2 features consistently improve over recurrent, convolutional, Transformer-based, and gradient-boosting baselines under the same preprocessing and evaluation protocol. We further analyze the impact of context length and find that performance improves significantly with longer histories, indicating that TSFM representation offer a practical and data-efficient alternative for RUL estimation in industrial settings.
Amir El-Ghoussani, Michele De Vita, Ronald Naumann +1
Time Series Foundation ModelsPredictive MaintenanceUseful Life PredictionSequence ModelingLeast Squares
AskPDF