Priors Persist Through Suppression: A Stroop Paradigm for Lexical Override

Long-context evaluations often test whether a model can recover distant evidence, but recoverability does not guarantee behavioral influence. We test the prediction that a distant discourse anchor can remain explicitly recoverable yet fail to change the locally preferred reading of a familiar multiword expression; such failures should concentrate when the model's no-anchor default conflicts with the anchor, while prior-correct decisions remain largely preserved. We introduce Multiword Expression Effective Context Length (MWE-ECL), a bilingual diagnostic whose matched anchor-retrieval, no-anchor prior, and interpretation prompts measure explicit recoverability, model-observed defaults, and anchor-conditioned decisions, respectively. Across eight English deployment panels on a shared 0-128K grid, retrieval-control accuracy on prior-conflict items is 0.989-1.000, prior-conflict override spans 0.806-1.000 (0.809-1.000 after conditioning on correct retrieval), and preservation of prior-correct decisions remains 0.977-1.000. A same-call control querying retrieval and interpretation in one prompt reproduces the gap for DeepSeek V4 Pro (1.000 retrieval versus 0.900-0.920 interpretation), showing that separate invocations are not its sole explanation; smaller or absent gaps in the other two models bound its generality. For DeepSeek V4 Flash, separate prompt-fit tests retain perfect retrieval with lower interpretation at 512K and 1M, while foil-consistent cues shift the no-anchor prior far more than retrieval; cross-model cue effects are heterogeneous. A separately reported 10-family Chinese subset shows similar descriptive gaps, but imperfect retrieval for some models prevents an integration-only attribution. MWE-ECL therefore evaluates whether explicitly recoverable distant context changes a competing local semantic decision.

Midway through an ordinary pretraining run, a small language model learns the pronoun-gender rule: cued with a girl's name ("Sue cried because"), it resolves the next pronoun to she, generalizing to held-out probes (0.94 by step 925). By step 3,500 the same model scores near zero on the same probes, although the rule's evidence is still in the training data. We call this within-run reversal natural ungrokking: the corpus decides, with no trace in the loss curve, which learned rules a model keeps. Which rules survive is predictable from one corpus statistic: how often the training stream shows the rule winning. Across un-intervened runs (two corpora, three budgets, three seeds), support frequency decides a rule's fate; the data-to-parameter ratio only modulates how deeply a doomed rule falls. The same emerge-then-collapse dynamics appear in public Pythia checkpoints, collapse depth ordered by model scale as predicted. The forgetting is a displacement: a competing surface pattern out-competes the rule, and the log-probability margin between them crosses zero within 100 training steps of the behavioral collapse. Control over this fate is asymmetric: the same edit that destroys a rule on demand cannot restore it. Flipping support to counter-evidence in place kills the rule with monotone dose-response in two unrelated rules; but injecting support back, even to 450 times the level that naturally sustains it, buys no recovery. Every confirmatory threshold and prediction was pre-registered before the data it governed was read.

Instruction-tuned language models can answer the same causal-reasoning question differently after its English variable names are replaced by type-preserving placeholders, although the structural causal model and the gold answer are unchanged. We ask whether this lexical gap reflects information loss in the placeholder view or a misaligned read-out from a representation that still carries answer-relevant content. Vernier uses a paired-view weight update as an instrument and then inspects the mechanism left after the gap closes. In the working regimes, the evidence favours representational misalignment. A variable-name probe becomes more accurate on the placeholder view, and activation patching on Qwen-7B, Qwen-14B, and Llama-3.1-8B shows that the decision-token representation can transfer answer identity between views. The update that realigns the views is counterfactual augmentation over original and placeholder prompts, while the answer-subspace KL mainly sharpens intermediate answer-belief agreement. Success is bounded by model family, scale, and task. CRASS transfer is reliable across Qwen scales and Llama, e-CARE remains weak, and preliminary non-causal rename tasks show a similar qualitative pattern.