Operator learning for the 2D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations: a conformal prediction approach in the data-scarce regime

Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), achieving speedups of several orders of magnitude over traditional numerical solvers. However, deploying these models in safety-critical engineering applications -- such as thermal management of electronic components and battery systems -- requires not only accurate point predictions but also rigorous uncertainty guarantees. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for neural operators, including Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensembles, provide only relative uncertainty estimates without formal coverage guarantees. In this work, we propose the first application of split conformal prediction to neural operator-based physics simulation, providing distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees. We further introduce a normalized conformal prediction scheme that leverages MC Dropout uncertainty to produce adaptive-width intervals, yielding tighter intervals in regions of low uncertainty and wider intervals where the model is less certain. Full-scale experiments (33.7M parameters, 800 training samples, 5 ensemble members, NVIDIA V100) on steady-state heat conduction benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves 89.1% empirical coverage at the target level of alpha=0.1, while producing spatially adaptive prediction intervals that reflect the underlying physical uncertainty structure. We also provide an uncertainty decomposition framework that separates epistemic uncertainty (68% of total) from aleatoric uncertainty (32% of total), offering actionable guidance for data collection and model improvement. Our method is implemented in an open-source platform with REST API endpoints and interactive 3D visualization.

Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) achieve remarkable accuracy in approximating solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs). However, providing rigorous uncertainty estimates remains an open challenge. We propose Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction (PI-CP), a framework that embeds PDE residuals into the nonconformity score of split conformal prediction, producing prediction intervals that are (i) distribution-free with provable coverage guarantees, and (ii) spatially adaptive when the PDE residual correlates with prediction error -- tighter where physics is well-satisfied, wider where it is violated. Additionally, we prove that FNO's translation equivariance creates a fundamental approximation barrier for PDEs with Dirichlet boundary conditions, and show that coordinate channels resolve this with up to 63x error reduction. We validate PI-CP across six physics scenarios -- heat conduction (2D/3D), structural mechanics (2D/3D), Darcy flow, and Navier-Stokes -- demonstrating consistent 89-91% coverage for all four Conformal methods, while MC Dropout and Deep Ensembles are unstable (82-100%). FNO outperforms CNN and DeepONet by 10-12x.

Repeatedly solving parametric PDEs is essential for uncertainty quantification, design optimization and inverse problems, but conventional neural operators require expensive non-convex training. We introduce PCA--RaNN, a randomized latent neural operator that combines PCA-based dimensionality reduction with fixed random features and a closed-form least-squares readout. It recasts latent operator learning as fixed-feature linear regression, reducing training time by one to three orders of magnitude across benchmarks while maintaining competitive accuracy. We introduce an energy-matched scaling rule and a lightweight two-parameter BFGS refinement to correct suboptimal feature scales. Ensemble averaging reduces predictive variance. On Burgers, Darcy, Navier--Stokes and backward heat equation benchmarks, PCA--RaNN provides a favorable speed--accuracy trade-off against operator-learning baselines. The ensemble supports split-conformal prediction intervals, and the linear readout enables rapid online adaptation via recursive least squares without retraining hidden features. This provides an efficient, uncertainty-aware surrogate for many-query scientific workflows.