Interpretable Uncertainty

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Uncertainty QuantificationPredictive UncertaintyUncertainty-Aware TeachersCalibrated UncertaintyPose UncertaintyUncertainty PropagationDoubt

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Period ending 2026-09-14

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A weekly snapshot of new work published in Interpretable Uncertainty.

Period ending 2026-09-07

1 new paper

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41 papers

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  1. Sparsity Regularized and Robust Mean Variance Portfolio Selection Under Ellipsoidal Uncertainty

    Sep 11, 2026Deniz Akkaya, Emre Can Yayla, Buse Şen +1Portfolio OptimizationSparsity

  2. Conformal Calibration Transfer

    Sep 11, 2026Achref DoulaConformal PredictionCalibrated Uncertainty

  3. VFR-Audit: Verdict-Level Reliability for Fairness Audits in Hospital Length-of-Stay Prediction

    Aug 31, 2026Md Jannatul Rakib Joy, Viet Vo, Caslon ChuaFairness AuditsAlgorithm Auditing

  4. Certified Safety Radii in Forecast-Error Space for Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Small Signal Stability-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow via Lifted Spectrahedral Containment

    Aug 31, 2026Ziqi Zhang, Xi ChenAc Optimal Power FlowFinite-Sample Certificates

  5. Robust Broad Learning System with Wave Loss for Classification under Data Uncertainty

    Aug 30, 2026Mushir Akhtar, A. Varshney, A. Quadir +3Uncertainty-Aware TeachersLoss Function

  6. CLAIM: Leading Open-domain Active Clarification of Large Language Models with Uncertainty Measurement

    Aug 12, 2026Kuangzhao Yang, Ziliang Zhao, Zhicheng DouClarificationLarge Language Model Uncertainty

  7. Staying on Spec: Real-Time Monitoring under Uncertainty with a Maritime Case Study

    Aug 3, 2026Elizabeth Dietrich, Hanna Krasowski, Emir Cem Gezer +3VesselsReachability

  8. The Geometry of Flow-Matching Uncertainty: A Cost-free Uncertainty Proxy and Its Application in Flow-based VLA Failure Detection

    Jul 30, 2026Ziyang Rao, Yiren Zhao, Weiyu Guo +3Velocity FieldInterpretable Uncertainty

  9. Beyond "What to Retrieve": Uncertainty in Retrieval-Augmented Code Generation

    Jul 27, 2026Chandan Kumar Sah, Li Zhang, Xiaoli LianAI Code GenerationRetrieval-Augmented Generation

  10. Dynamic Online Processor-Native Inference for State Estimation

    Jul 13, 2026Orestis KaparounakisBayesian FilteringState Estimation

  11. Estimating Uncertainty from Reasoning: A Large-Scale Study of Multi- and Crosslingual MCQA Performance in LLMs

    Jul 7, 2026Andrea Bacciu, Andrea Alfarano, Saab Mansour +2Large Language Model UncertaintyInterpretable Uncertainty

  12. Probably Correct Optimal Stable Matching under Two-Sided Uncertainty

    Jul 6, 2026Andreas Athanasopoulos, Anne-Marie George, Christos DimitrakakisBipartite Perfect MatchingsMatching Markets

  13. Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Annika Schneider, Tommy Rochussen, Joshua Stiller +1Interpretable UncertaintyUncertainty Quantification

  14. Estimating Uncertainty in Classifier Performance with Applications to Large Language Models and Nested Data

    Jun 24, 2026Kylie AnglinConfidence IntervalsMultiplier Bootstrap

  15. Interpretable Uncertainty Routing Separating Emotion Ambiguity from Distribution Shift in Facial Expression Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Keito Inoshita, Takato UenoInterpretable UncertaintyFacial Expression Recognition

  16. Uncertainty Decomposition for Clarification Seeking in LLM Agents

    Jun 17, 2026Gregory MatsnevLarge Language Model UncertaintyClarification

  17. Decision-Driven Geosteering Under Uncertainty: A Unified Framework for Sequential Decision Optimization

    Jun 15, 2026Hibat Errahmen Djecta, Sergey Alyaev, Kristian Fossum +3Drilling DataSubsurface Scattering

  18. Genetic Algorithm Based Coordination and Optimization Model for Generation Grid Load Storage in Active Distribution Networks

    Jun 12, 2026Jinlu Zhang, Fujian Chi, Tianhan Ling +4Smart GridsGenetic Algorithms

  19. SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment

    Jun 9, 2026Kaiwen Shi, Zheyuan Zhang, Yanfang YeLarge Language Model UncertaintyInterpretable Uncertainty

  20. Code Is More Than Text: Uncertainty Estimation for Code Generation

    Jun 8, 2026Yuling Shi, Caiqi Zhang, Yuexian Li +4AI Code GenerationLarge Language Model Uncertainty

  21. Inverse design of bespoke interatomic potentials via active learning by information-matching

    Jun 6, 2026Yonatan Kurniawan, Logan D. Williams, Amit Samanta +6Interatomic PotentialsMolecular Dynamics

  22. A Komi-Yazva--Russian Parallel Corpus and Evaluation Protocol for Zero- and Few-Shot LLM Translation

    Jun 4, 2026Petr ParshakovMultilingual BenchmarkCorpus

  23. ADAPTOOD: Uncertainty-Aware Fine-Tuning for Out-of-Distribution ECG Time Series Models

    Jun 2, 2026Sotirios Vavaroutas, Yu Yvonne Wu, Ali Etemad +1Electrocardiogram Image ClassificationOut-Of-Distribution

  24. The Ghost Annotator: a Framework to Explore Human Label Variation in Content Moderation through Conformal Prediction

    Jun 1, 2026Mirko Lai, Alessandra Urbinati, Simona Frenda +2Human AnnotatorsContent Moderation

  25. The Role of Ambiguity in Error Prediction via Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 1, 2026Ieva Raminta Staliūnaitė, James Bishop, Andreas VlachosLarge Language Model UncertaintyPointwise Forecasting Losses

  26. On the evolution of the concept of probability as a mirror of the evolution of reason

    May 26, 2026Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Vincent Courtillot, Dominique Gibert +6ProbabilityInterpretable Uncertainty

  27. Fuzzy PyTorch: Rapid Numerical Variability Evaluation for Deep Learning Models

    May 25, 2026Inés Gonzalez-Pepe, Hiba Akhaddar, Tristan Glatard +1PytorchFloating-Point

  28. A Posterior-Predictive Variance Decomposition for Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting

    May 21, 2026Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. MuttaqiWind Power ForecastingPredictive Uncertainty

  29. Descriptive versus Regulatory Uncertainty in Bounded Predictive Systems

    May 17, 2026Ahmed Gamal EldinInterpretable UncertaintyRegulation

  30. Principle-Guided Supervision for Interpretable Uncertainty in Medical Image Segmentation

    May 9, 2026An Sui, Yuzhu Li, Gunter Schumann +2Medical Image SegmentationInterpretable Uncertainty

  31. Query2Uncertainty: Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration for 3D Object Detection under Distribution Shift

    May 6, 2026Till Beemelmanns, Alexey Nekrasov, Stefan Vilceanu +43D Object DetectionCalibrated Uncertainty

  32. Human-in-the-Loop Uncertainty Analysis in Self-Adaptive Robots Using LLMs

    May 4, 2026Hassan Sartaj, Jalil Boudjadar, Mirgita Frasheri +2Interpretable UncertaintyHuman-In-The-Loop

  33. Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Tensor Network Kernel Machines

    Apr 29, 2026Albert Saiapin, Kim BatselierBayesian Neural NetworksGaussian Process

  34. Verbal Confidence Saturation in 3-9B Open-Weight Instruction-Tuned LLMs: A Pre-Registered Psychometric Validity Screen

    Apr 24, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliConfidence CalibrationVerbalization

  35. Answer Only as Precisely as Justified: Calibrated Claim-Level Specificity Control for Agentic Systems

    Apr 19, 2026Tianyi Huang, Samuel Xu, Jason Tansong Dang +2Agentic AI SystemsInterpretable Uncertainty

  36. Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach

    Mar 28, 2026Xabier Gonzalez-Garcia, Siu Lun Chau, Julian Rodemann +6Interpretable UncertaintyMulticlass Classification

  37. Variational Sparse Paired Autoencoders (vsPAIR) for Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification

    Feb 3, 2026Jack Michael Solomon, Rishi Leburu, Matthias ChungInverse ProblemUncertainty Quantification

  38. Probabilistic Multi-Agent Aircraft Landing Time Prediction

    Dec 9, 2025Kyungmin Kim, Seokbin Yoon, Keumjin LeeAir Traffic ControlUnmanned Aerial Vehicle Trajectories

  39. Latent Space Analysis for Interpretable Uncertainty in Melanoma Classification

    Jun 23, 2025Ciro Listone, Aniello MuranoSkin Lesion ClassificationLatent Space

  40. Statistical Taylor Expansion: A New and Path-Independent Method for Uncertainty Analysis

    Oct 2, 2024Chengpu WangInterpretable UncertaintyVariance

  41. A Calibration Audit of Confidence in Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction Models

    Date pendingNanxing Nick Deng, Qing Cheng, Niclas Zeller +1Feed-Forward 3D ReconstructionReconstruction Effects