Authors: Tim Genewein, Matija Franklin, Alexander Lerchner, Laurent Orseau, Samuel Albanie, Adam Bales, Cole Wyeth, Stephanie Chan, +6 more
Organizations: Google DeepMind · University of Waterloo (work conducted while at Google DeepMind) · Australian National University · University College London
Abstract
Over the last decade, building human-level artificial general intelligence has moved from far-fetched speculation to being a concrete next-decade target for many of the largest AI organisations. Achieving this goal would have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society, which raises many complex questions for the decade ahead. This report investigates how AI itself might continue to develop in a post-AGI world along the continuum of machine intelligence. The endpoint of this continuum, Universal AI, is theoretically well understood, which provides some formal grounding for the main focus of this report: the transition from human-level AGI to artificial general superintelligence, which can intuitively be understood as a system that is more intelligent and cognitively capable than large organisations of humans. After characterizing ASI, the report discusses four potential pathways from AGI to ASI: scaling AGI, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi-agent collectives. The report then discusses possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Determining whether the impact of these frictions will be negligible or substantial raises a number of concrete open research questions. Due to large uncertainties for predicting ASI progress, it cannot be ruled out that AI progress might continue to accelerate over the next years. This could imply that the image of a single transformative step change, caused by the introduction of human-level AGI into our society, could be inaccurate. More apt might be the prospect of a series of transformative societal changes caused by AI-enabled progress and breakthroughs across many areas of science and technology. Preparing for this prospect requires a massively interdisciplinary endeavour of global scope and interest.
Is monolithic scaling the only path to AGI? This paper challenges the dogma that purely scaling a single model is sufficient to achieve Artificial General Intelligence. Instead, we identify Agentic AI as a necessary paradigm for mastering the complex, heterogeneous distribution of real-world tasks. Through rigorous theoretical derivations, we contrast the optimization constraints of monolithic learners against the efficiency of Agentic systems, progressing from simple routing mechanisms to general Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) topologies. We demonstrate that Agentic AI achieves exponentially superior generalization and sample efficiency. Finally, we discuss the connection to Mixture-of-Experts, reinterpret the instability of current multi-agent frameworks, and call for greater research focus on Agentic AI.
Our focus are five related questions that stem from a critical software studies perspective. Underpinning this view is the acknowledged need to avoid assumptions regarding the inevitability of the current situation relating to AI. What we need to see is the closeness of the linkage between current commercial AI development and our prevailing social, political and economic circumstances. This does mean that the perspectives presented here are done so critically and conditionally. Most importantly, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is seen as being problematic both conceptually and definitionally. This conditioning of any view regarding AGI does lead the discussion in specific directions and to certain conclusions regarding the future. However, adopting this perspective enables the work to offer some final recommendations. We set out to ask the following questions, 1. What are the critical pathways that produced the current dominant generative AI tools (capabilities, product forms, adoption patterns)? 2. Which decision points acted as leverage nodes (small changes that had large downstream effects), and which dead ends reveal alternative possibilities that did not become dominant? 3. How do pathways differ across three foundational-model trajectories such as the frontier proprietary models, open-weight models or specific domain and sovereign models? 4. Which alternative projects branched from key leverage nodes, what is their current state, and why did some succeed, stall, fail or become absorbed? 5. Based on this analysis, what socio-technical development programmes could plausibly move toward AGI-adjacent capability while meeting requirements for transparency, moderation, wellbeing and sustainable business models?
This paper suggests the adoption of a novel inversion in AI ethics: instead of asking how humans should treat artificial superintelligence (ASI), it examines how future sentient ASI may morally consider and evaluate humanity. We are not only designing intelligent systems but also shaping the initial conditions under which those systems form judgments about us. The paper proposes a preliminary set of post-human moral principles that may govern sentient ASI actions. The implication is that technical design choices (some are suggested), humanity's moral behaviour, and the essence of what it means to be human, may influence humanity's long-term standing in a post-ASI world.