Is Spurious Correlation Removal Always Learnable?
Abstract
Invariant learning can fail even when the invariant structure is statistically identifiable. We show a conditional computational barrier: under a black-box samplable supervised sparse recovery primitive motivated by average-case sparse-recovery reductions, there exist \emph{samplable} multi-environment instances with a one-dimensional predictive invariant subspace () that are learnable with polynomial samples by exhaustive search, while any polynomial-time constant-accuracy recovery algorithm would contradict the primitive. We further quantify environment diversity by a separation parameter , which controls identifiability and the curvature of invariance objectives. Under sufficient diversity and local Gaussian regularity, the minimax risk is , and under label-induced shifts a phase transition occurs at with refined estimation error scaling proportional to . Synthetic and real datasets illustrate the predicted gaps and transitions and motivate simple diversity diagnostics.
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