Majority-of-Three is Optimal

Weighted majority votes are central to many successful ensemble methods. PAC-Bayesian theory provides tight generalization guarantees for such models by analyzing the expected risk of stochastic classifiers, while analyzing the risk of deterministic majority votes relies on surrogate bounds. To avoid these surrogates, Zantedeschi et al. ( 2021) introduced guarantees for stochastic majority votes, but the resulting models remain randomized. In this paper, we propose a derandomization framework for stochastic majority votes. To do so, we apply recent advances in disintegrated PAC-Bayesian theory directly to the space of majority vote weight vectors, transforming stochastic guarantees into certificates for a single deterministic majority vote. We derive two families of high-probability generalization bounds, covering both data-independent and data-dependent constructions of the ensemble, which naturally lead to a self-bounding learning algorithm optimizing deterministic majority vote guarantees.

Let $H\subseteq\{-1,+1\}^X$ be a class of finite VC dimension $d\ge1$. Writing $L$ for the binary risk and $L^*=\min_{h\in H}L(h)$, we construct a learner achieving the statistically optimal risk bound: from an i.i.d.\ sample of size $n$, for every $0<δ\le 1/2$, with probability at least $1-δ$, $$L(\widehat h) \le L^*+ 7\cdot10^8\left( \sqrt{\frac{L^*(d+\log(1/δ))}{n}} +\frac{d+\log(1/δ)}{n} \right).$$ This settles the sample complexity of agnostic PAC learning up to universal constants at every fixed $L^*$, matching the lower bounds of Devroye, Györfi, and Lugosi [A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition, Springer, 1996].

We study the problem of \emph{adversarially robust} PAC learning. In this framework, the learner observes independent samples from an unknown distribution over $\mathcal{X} \times \{0,1\}$, as in classical PAC learning. However, given a perturbation map $\mathcal{U} : \mathcal{X} \to 2^{\mathcal{X}}$ known to the learner, the goal is to output, with high probability, a predictor that correctly classifies \emph{every} perturbation $z \in \mathcal{U}(x)$ of most future examples $(x,y)$ drawn from the same underlying distribution. We determine the \emph{optimal} $\mathcal{U}$-independent sample complexity of this problem in both the realizable and agnostic settings. More specifically, for every concept class $\mathcal{H}$ of $\operatorname{VC}$ dimension $d$, we prove upper bounds of $\mathcal{O} \big( d/ε+ \log(1/δ)/ε\big)$ in the realizable setting and $\mathcal{O} \big( d/ε^2 + \log(1/δ)/ε^2 \big)$ in the agnostic setting, together with an optimal first-order refinement of the latter. These bounds match the corresponding lower bounds for classical PAC learning. Consequently, and perhaps surprisingly, adversarial robustness incurs \emph{no additional} distribution-free statistical cost, uniformly over all perturbation maps. Our bounds improve exponentially on those of [Montasser, Hanneke, and Srebro; COLT '19]. On the technical side, we present short and elementary proofs based on a new algorithmic principle that we call \emph{binomial-bagging}. We believe that binomial-bagging and its analysis may be of independent interest.