Coping in Crisis: Computational Modeling of Coping Styles in Digital Crisis Discourse During the 2023 Turkiye Earthquake

Crises alter both how people move and how they communicate. During emergencies such as wildfires and pandemics, changes in mobility patterns and online emotional discourse evolve jointly, yet they are typically studied in isolation. This paper presents a unified and interpretable pipeline that integrates mobility and social media data to identify cross-domain behavioral patterns in crisis settings. The framework is evaluated through two case studies: a short-horizon analysis of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires (prototype case) and a longitudinal analysis of UAE COVID-19 behavior from March 2020 to December 2021 (primary case, 671 days). The pipeline aligns heterogeneous daily signals, transforms them into binary behavioral states, applies Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) to extract co-occurrence structure, mines association rules, and validates rule stability through chronological holdout testing. A structured policy-translation layer renders robust rules as operational briefs specifying triggers, lead times, and action playbooks. Results reveal clear cross-domain behavioral structure in both crises. In the wildfire case, traffic stress, fear/anger sentiment, and governance discourse are tightly coupled within a 33-day window, with key rules reaching 100% confidence and lift scores up to 2.5. In the COVID case, repeated mobility adaptation and sentiment volatility yield 8 stable same-day rules (88% holdout pass rate) and 40 clean predictive rules with 2--7 day lead horizons. The work demonstrates that interpretable multimodal fusion can produce both scientifically credible and policy-actionable crisis intelligence.

Crisis sentiment analysis is especially challenging for low-resource languages such as Bangla, where language, context, and public reaction shift rapidly. We introduce UNRESTSENT200K, a Bangla crisis sentiment dataset with approximately 200K Facebook and YouTube comments from the July-August 2024 Bangladesh uprising. The dataset covers five event-aligned phases, from early escalation and internet blackout to regime transition and a later flood crisis. Each comment is linked to its parent post, enabling evaluation with and without discourse context. All comments are annotated through a fully human process involving 14 native Bangla-speaking annotators and senior validation, achieving substantial agreement (kappa = 0.73, alpha = 0.71) and 94.2% blind-audit agreement. We benchmark fine-tuned encoders, prompted LLMs, and LoRA-tuned LLMs. Results show that parent-post context consistently improves performance, while temporal shift across phases causes large performance drops. Strong LLMs perform well, but still struggle with sarcasm, implicit political references, and phase-dependent meaning. UNRESTSENT200K provides a benchmark for studying context-aware and temporally robust sentiment analysis in low-resource crisis discourse. UNRESTSENT200K is available at https://sami0055.github.io/UNRESTSENT200K/

Semi-supervised learning approaches have been investigated as a means to enhance the analysis of social media data in disaster management contexts. In this work, we present the first empirical evaluation of large language model (LLM) guided semi-supervised learning for crisis related tweet classification. We compare two recent LLM assisted semi-supervised methods, VerifyMatch and LLM guided Co-Training ( LG-CoTrain), against established semi-supervised baselines. Our results show that LG-CoTrain significantly outperforms classical semi-supervised approaches in low resource settings with 5, 10 and 25 labeled examples per class, achieving the highest averaged Macro F1 across events. VerifyMatch achieves competitive performance while also demonstrating strong calibration properties. As the number of labeled examples increases, the performance gap narrows and Self Training emerges as a strong baseline. We further observe that compact semi-supervised models can, in some cases, outperform very large LLMs operating in zero-shot settings. This finding highlights the potential of transferring knowledge from LLMs into smaller and more deployable models through LLM guided semi-supervised learning, offering a practical pathway for real world disaster response applications. Our project repository on Github is here.