Expert-Driven Survival Machines: Improving Stratification and Interpretability in Multiple Clinical Cohorts
Authors: Farica Zhuang, Zixuan Wen, Christos Davatzikos, Li Shen
Organizations: University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsulvania, USA
Abstract
Survival prediction plays a central role for healthcare providers and clinical researchers. Accurate risk stratification enables early intervention and improved patient management. Most existing deep survival models learn one common feature representation for all patients, which may hide important differences between patient subgroups. In contrast, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework allows different parts of the model to focus on different patient patterns, leading to more individualized representations. Therefore, in this work, we propose a mixture-of-experts enhanced adaptive deep clustering survival framework (AdaCSM) for modeling such heterogeneous survival patterns. We introduce a routing-based expert mechanism that enables conditional specialization within a parametric survival modeling framework. The proposed architecture allocates patients to specialized risk predictors dynamically while preserving the patient survival and subtype clustering objectives. We compare our method with state-of-the-art survival and deep clustering models on multiple real-world longitudinal clinical cohorts spanning diverse disease domains. The proposed method demonstrates improved predictive performance and leads to interpretable results in survival analysis.
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a complex neurodegenerative disorder that continues to impact millions of people worldwide. Predicting AD conversion during the prodromal stage remains critical for disease understanding and patient care. As such, survival models are widely used for AD risk prediction, yet they are typically static predictors with limited interpretability and no capacity for natural language reasoning. In this work, we propose iLENS, an interpretable large language model (LLM) guided framework based on mixture-of-experts (MoE) for survival prediction in AD conversion. Our approach uses LLM to synthesize structured neuroimaging measurements and unstructured information to guide expert routing. Our framework demonstrates competitive predictive performance and capability in patient subtyping. Furthermore, our framework provides transparent, biologically grounded rationales for its routing decisions, bridging the gap between high-performance survival analysis and interpretable clinical decision support.
Multimodal survival prediction, a crucial yet challenging task, demands the integration of multimodal medical data (\eg Whole Slide Images (WSIs) and Genomic Profiles) to achieve accurate prognostic modeling. Given the inherent heterogeneity across modalities, the feature decoupling-fusion paradigm has emerged as a dominant approach. However, these methods have the following shortcomings: (1) fail to reduce the redundant information of modality features before decoupling, which negatively affects the feature decoupling and fusion effect;(2) lack the ability to model the fine-grained relationships of the features and capture the local information interactions between intra- and inter-modality features. To address these issues, we propose a \underline{H}ierarchical \underline{D}ecoupling-Fusion \underline{M}ixture-\underline{o}f-\underline{E}xperts (HDMoE) framework with two levels of MoE and \underline{R}andom \underline{F}eature \underline{R}eorganization (RFR) modules.In the first-level MoE, shared experts and routed experts are employed to remove redundant information and extract fine-grained specific features within each modality, while the second-level MoE facilitates fine-grained inter-modality feature decoupling. Besides, we design two RFR modules following each level of MoE to finely fuse intra- and inter-modality features, which can help the model capture more fine-grained relationships between modalities. Extensive experimental results on our private Liver Cancer (LC) and three TCGA public datasets confirm the effectiveness of our proposed method. Codes are available at https://github.com/ZJUMAI/HDMoE.
In this work, we propose K-SurvMeans, a novel extension of K-Means for clustering survival data. The method explicitly uses the survival outcome in the clustering process to optimize cluster centers, thereby maximizing pairwise survival differences between clusters. The objective function encourages the clusters to be well-separated from the survival perspective. Since the resulting optimization problem is non-differentiable, we employ the Particle Swarm algorithm for the Optimization process. To further improve flexibility and mitigate the curse of dimensionality, we extend the framework to operate in a learned low-dimensional latent space obtained via a dimensionality reduction. This allows the method to capture better-separated clusters and enhance optimization efficiency by reducing the search space. Experiments on multiple publicly available benchmark survival datasets demonstrate that K-SurvMeans consistently yields clusters with improved separation in survival distributions compared to existing deep learning-based survival clustering methods.