A Risk Decomposition Framework for Pre-Hoc Fine-Tuning Prediction

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) is compute-intensive and error-prone: model performance depends sensitively on data quality and hyperparameter choices, and naïve runs can even degrade model performance. This raises a practical question:can we predict fine-tuning performance before committing to a full training run? We present TUNEAHEAD, a lightweight framework for pre-hoc prediction of fine-tuning performance. TUNEAHEAD encodes each candidate run as a meta-feature vector that combines static dataset descriptors with dynamic probe features from a short standardized probe. A predictor maps these features to performance estimates, while SHAP-based attributions provide interpretable diagnostics that reveal which specific features drive the prediction. Across 1,300+ fine-tuning runs on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, TUNEAHEAD consistently outperforms strong baselines such as Early-Stop Extrapolation and ProxyLM. On a held-out test set of 370 runs, TUNEAHEAD achieves an RMSE of 1.47 percentage points and places 95.1% of predictions within +3/-3 percentage points of the true score. These accurate continuous predictions support practical go/no-go screening policies that can reduce unnecessary full fine-tuning while retaining most promising runs.

Large language model (LLM) systems increasingly use uncertainty signals to allocate limited computation across verification, test-time scaling, tool execution, and other selective-compute decisions. Such policies rely on a \emph{global signal comparability assumption}: equal scores should carry comparable decision value across inputs. Using budgeted verification as a controlled diagnostic setting, we identify a failure mode of this assumption: uncertainty quality is heteroskedastic across cost strata, with some regions exhibiting near-random discriminability despite concentrating many errors. Under an explicit local model, we characterize the resulting distortion of global allocation and show that its upper bound scales with cross-stratum signal-quality dispersion. We separate weak signals, optimization instability, and structural heterogeneity through a controlled intervention hierarchy: Threshold, MP-Adapt, MP-Strat, and a deliberately simple cost-stratified thresholding intervention (CST). Across MBPP and MATH using Qwen3-8B, LLaMA3-8B, and GPT-4o-mini, global online adaptation yields inconsistent gains over static thresholding; MP-Strat partially recovers performance, while CST improves hit rate by up to 17 percentage points in strongly heterogeneous settings without gradient updates. These results identify structural heterogeneity, rather than optimizer weakness alone, as the primary bottleneck in the observed settings. More broadly, misaligned feedback structure cannot always be repaired by stronger optimization.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, their inference dynamics remain poorly understood because of the limited resolution of existing analysis tools. In this work, we identify an intrinsic magnification mechanism in transformer architectures: deeper layers inherently magnify the small changes of layer-wise confidence, providing a fine-grained confidence trajectory. Building on this insight, we introduce HyperLens, a high-resolution probe designed to trace confidence trajectories and quantify the cognitive effort during inference. Across LLMs and datasets, HyperLens reveals a consistent divergence in confidence trajectories that separates complex from simple tasks. We abstract this pattern into a quantitative cognitive effort metric. Our analysis reveals a fundamental principle: complex tasks consistently require higher cognitive effort. Finally, we provide a mechanistic diagnosis of a common side effect of standard Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT): it can reduce cognitive effort and consequently degrade performance on in-domain tasks.